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Euro 2012 Preview: Germany v Greece

by Rob Dore | June 22, 2012

Germany v Greece Friday 7.45pm ITV1 & RTE2

The lowdown…

This game will be seen as the biggest mismatch of the quarter-finals. Germany qualified as group winners with three wins from three, moving comfortably but unspectacularly in to the knock-out stages. Joachim Loew’s team have now won their last 14 games in-a-row and are the favorites in the outright market. Solid but unexciting so far, they’re expected to move up through the gears as the competition continues.

Greece have been one of the outsiders from the beginning and going in to their final game with group favorites Russia with only one point, no one expected them to still be in the competition. They don’t offer a massive amount going forward but they can be defensively sound. Their current side appears to be no worse than the one which lifted the trophy in 2004. They shocked us all eight years ago when they weren’t given a chance.

Match bet…

This match is really only going to go one way. Germany will have the majority of possession and Greece will defend desperately and try to nick a goal on the break or from a set-piece.

It’s a tactic which worked against Russia in their crucial final group game but one which will be a lot tougher to execute successfully against the outright favorites. Germany have several avenues of attack available and when they’re in stride they can be ruthless.

We’re learning how dangerous it can be to dismiss Greece but the best they can hope to get in 90 minutes is a draw at 15/4. And that will be earned through a combination of last ditch defending, profligate finishing and luck.

Otherwise it’s Germany to justify their favorites tag with a win at 4/11.

A correct score stab in the dark…

If Greece dig in a survive the German onslaught then it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that they can hang on for a draw and 1-1 at 15/2 could be worth a cheeky punt. If they can’t then Germany could put a few past them and 3-1 at 11/1 would return a tidy profit.

A goalscorer bet…

He may not always look like a world beater but his record suggest otherwise. Mario Gomez has score 80 goals in his last 97 games for Bayern Munich and has record 25 in 55 internationals. He has three goals already in this tournament and he will be heavily backed to add to that total against Greece. Gomez is short at 8/11 to score anytime and if he scores the first goal Paddy Power will refund 1st/last, correct score and scorecast bets on this game.

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