Everton v Newcastle, 8.00pm, Sky Sports One
Everton host Newcastle tonight and will be aiming to bounce-back from their 2-0 defeat away to West Brom a couple of weeks ago. With a recent home record that is stronger than Batman on steroids it is no surprise to see the Toffees as the 4/6 favourites for the game, but the 9/2 on offer for a Newcastle win has raised a few eyebrows here at the Paddy Power Blog.
David Moyes men are rightly favourites but surely 9/2 is too big for Newcastle?
Admittedly the stats show that recently Newcastle have been worse on the road than Roman Grosjean and Everton can pile on more misery. The Magpies have lost the last four Premier League away games and have conceded in the last five on the spin. Everton on the other hand have won their last five league games at home, scoring 14 goals and only conceding one. The one they let in was against Newcastle back in May and it was an own goal by Tony Hibbert!
Everton are traditionally slow starters but have hit the ground running this season and have received lavish praise for their performance against Manchester United. Newcastle might not have settled as quickly as the Toffees but have by no means been a poor side. They beat Tottenham 2-1 in an entertaining game in the opening weekend of the season before playing quite well in defeat to Chelsea who were on fire at the time while Eden Hazard was taking the Premier League by storm.
It seems fair to consider Everton favourites but the two teams have been evenly matched over the years and both have an array of top quality players. Plenty of punters will back the Toffees but the better value bet would be to side with a Newcastle team that contains the attacking talent and flair of Hatem Ben Arfa, Papiss Cisse and Demba Ba.
I wouldn’t rule out an Everton win tonight but Newcastle at that price is appealing. The 9/2 for Newcastle to win is great value and the double chance of Newcastle or draw at 5/4 is arguably a better price than it should be.