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Racing preview: Stats give Tominator leading chance

by Sean Goff | October 12, 2012

OUT IN FRONT: A cracking card at Newmarket as the Cesarewitch takes centre-stage (Inpho)

By Sean Goff | Sports Reporter

One of the biggest betting heats of the season will be run on Saturday as 34 runners go to post for the 2m2f Cesarewitch Handicap (3.35).

This race is a stats’ fan wet dream with strong trends emerging in the age, weight, draw, form and SP of past winners.

We know your busy so some in-depth form study a little bit of skiving by the Paddy Power blog team has narrowed the field down to two.

Unsurprisingly, Countrywide Flame ticks all the right boxes and probably deserves his place at the top of the market at about 7/1 in Paddy Power’s online betting.  So far, so unoriginal.

But one that may have slipped under the radar is the 2011 Northumberland Plate winner Tominator at 12/1 particularly as Paddy Power is paying 1/4 the odds the first five places.

The five-year-old has joined Johnjo O’Neill’s stable for new owner Patsy Byrne and Jamie Spencer  has been booked to ride.

That both horses are likely to earn their keep over timber shouldn’t put you off as five of the last 10 winners of this marathon hailed from a National Hunt stable.


Irish trainer Dermot Weld saddles Olympiad – who won a staying handicap at York last time – but the draw may have killed this one’s chances of winning as he’s housed in stall 33.

In a contest where seven of the last 10 winners were drawn 12 or lower (Countrywide Flame drawn seven and Tominator drawn three) it may pay to stick with those who can get to the head of affairs early doors – and hopefully stay there.

The last-trained Irish winner was Leg Spinner in 2007 while Weld landed the prize in 1992 with Vintage Crop – who won the Melbourne Cup a year later – and landed a massive punt under Walter Swinburn in the process.

Jim Bolger’s Dawn Approach will face just five rivals as he puts his unbeaten record on the line in the Group One Dewhurst Stakes (2.55).

The ante-post favourite for next year’s 2,000 Guineas will be joined by stable-mate Leitir Mor along with Aidan O’Brien’s The Ferryman ridden by Ryan Moore and George Vancouver ridden by Aidan’s son, Joseph.

Biggest challenger may be the recent Doncaster winner Ashdan  trained by John Gosden.

Earlier, two of Britain’s leading juveniles Reckless Abandon and Moohaajim are among 10 ten runners declared for the Group 1  Middle Park Stakes (2.20) on the same card.

Clive Cox’s unbeaten charge has already seen off  Moohaajim at Deauville but jockey Adam Kirby has switched to Marco Botti’s runner for Saturday’s clash. French jockey Gerald Mosse will now ride Reckless Abandon.

Gimcrack Stakes winner Blaine, Richmond Stakes victor Heavy Metal and Aidan O’Brien’s Cristoforo Colombo are also in the line-up.

Paddy Power will refund mobile and text betting customers their losing single stake if their selection finishes 2nd to Reckless Abandon in this race. (T&C’s apply)




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