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X Factor betting: Back a group to get the boot

by Josh Powell | October 17, 2012



By Josh Powell | Sports writer and Louis Walsh fan

The X Factor went completely to trend last week as Rylan Clark survived the public vote and, as fantastically called by The Paddy Power Blogit was 44-year-old mum Melanie Masson who got the boot.

At the time of writing we tipped her to get eliminated at a cheeky 9/1 however she could be backed at a whopping 25/1 on Saturday night after she had murdered a cover of INXS’ Never Tear Us Apart.

We’re in to week three of the live shows and looking at the form from the first eight series, it is all set to be a grim week for top judge and all-round good bloke Louis Walsh. If you’re in the ‘Groups’ category or the ‘Overs’ category it is time to start getting worried.

Here are the acts who have previously been eliminated in week three of the show. Interestingly Scott Burton is now on the West End and Phillip Magee’s family were on hit-TV show ‘Airline’. The rest of them can be found on cruise ships around the country.

  • In the history of the X Factor there have been nine eliminations in week three and Louis Walsh has lost an act on five occasions
  • None of the other judges have ever had an act eliminated during the third week
  • Never has a contestant from the ‘Girls’ category been eliminated in week three
  • Someone from the ‘Overs’ category is booted out 44% of the time and a group gets the chop 33% of the time in the third week
  • It has only gone to deadlock in week three on one of a possible five occasions 

Clearly it is looking like an easy week for the girls and the boys which is great news for our favourite Rylan Clark and odds-on 8/11 favourite Ella Henderson. It looks bleak though for Union J, MK1 and District3.

All three of these acts are in the ‘Groups’ category and mentored by Louis Walsh so all the trends suggest it is one of these acts that will get eliminated.

In the last eight series of the X Factor Louis Walsh has had the act with the fewest amount of public votes 50% of the time in week three, so if it does go to deadlock expect one of his acts to go.

Union J’s loyal support of teenage girls should keep them in the competition and at 40/1 they are unlikely to be eliminated this week but the other two are worth a punt.

District3 are 5/2 to get booted out and MK1 are a tasty 5/1 after getting mixed reviews from the judges last week.

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