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X Factor betting: Why this week will be the end for Jade Ellis

by Josh Powell | October 23, 2012

#BackTheTrend

By Josh Powell | Pop Psychic

Followers of my X Factor tips have spent a week dining on a feast of champagne and women but now it is back down to business with week four of the competition. We’re two for two so far with Melanie and MK1 correctly predicted to get the boot thanks to the trends.

Paddy Power has had some tasty prices so far and there could be another gem if this week’s show continues to go with the form book. Week four is historically a good week for anybody in the ‘Overs’ category and there are a couple of other acts who should start getting ready to pack their bags ahead of Sunday night’s elimination.

  • A contestant from the ‘Overs’ category has never been eliminated in week four
  • Of the eight previous week four eliminations 37.5 per cent of the time it has been a girl and 37.5 per cent of the time it has been a boy
  • Louis Walsh has lost an act on two occasions out of eight
  • Nicole Scherzinger lost an act in week four of the US X Factor
  • In the last three years, of the six acts in danger four have been from the ‘Girls’ category which is a whopping 66 per cent
  • 62.5 per cent of the time in week four the contestant who sings third or fourth on the live show gets the boot
  • Five of the eight contestants eliminated in week four have been from London

Kye Sones and Christopher Maloney will no doubt be backed to go over the course of the weekend but they’ll be safe looking at the trends. Despite Maloney being dubbed a cheesy cruise ship singer, an ‘Overs’ act has never got the boot in week four and that should continue on Sunday.

It is contestants from the ‘Boys’ and ‘Girls’ categories that are most in danger and in particular Rylan Clark and Jade Ellis.

Now many people here at the Paddy Power Blog are firmly aboard the #TeamRylan train but the trends don’t look good. Nicole lost her act in week four last year on the US programme and boys have a poor record in this week. At 3/1 he is one of the favourites to go but might just have enough loyal support to get through.

Instead have a bit of the 6/1 on Jade to get the boot. As a London contestant in the ‘Girls’ category all the trends are pointing to her to be eliminated. She only just scraped by with a sympathy vote last week after a lousy performance and this weekend could be her last. If she performs third or fourth on the live show that could be the final nail in the coffin.

The 11/4 for Jade to be in the bottom two is the tastiest bet of the weekend.

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