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X Factor betting: Why it could be the end of the road for Lucy Spraggan

by Josh Powell | October 30, 2012

#BackTheTrend

By Josh Powell | Pop Psychic

Once again the X Factor went true to form last week with Jade Ellis rightly getting the boot after being tipped up at a tasty 6/1. Incredibly that means the Paddy Power Blog is a stunning three for three on X Factor tips this year.

SEE YOU AT BUTLINS: Jade Ellis got the boot on Saturday

The competition is certainly heating up now with only nine acts remaining and for the first time the red-hot favourite Ella Henderson has drifted to odds-against to win the competition outright at 11/10. There are some very strong trends in week five of the show and it should be a cracking week for Nicole Scherzinger and her acts.

  • An act from the boys category has never been eliminated in week five
  • Since 2006 the theme of the show has been ‘Number Ones’ on four occasions and an act from the boys category has never been eliminated in these weeks
  • Of the nine eliminations in week five someone from the girls category has got the boot 66 per cent of the time.
  • 41 per cent of the time there is girl act in the bottom two in week five. 24 per cent of the time there is someone from the overs category singing for survival
  • Last year Tulisa lost an act in week five leaving her with just Little Mix who went on to win it.
  • In the last five years after the sing-off it has gone to deadlock just once in week five. The other four times the judges have voted off an act and each time the act with the fewest public votes has survived 

All the trends are pointing to a bad week for the girls and that means it could be the end of the road for Lucy Spraggan.

The 21-year-old didn’t perform last week due to illness and received a bye through to this stage. She won’t be that lucky this week and could easily get the chop. In the show last year Tulisa was down to two acts in week five and lost boyband The Risk leaving her with just Little Mix who went on to win the show . There is every chance this year could follow that trend with Ella taking the crown.

It is traditionally a terrible week to be one of the girl acts and the 5/1 on Lucy to get the boot is an appealing price. She is unlikely to get much sympathy off the public despite last week’s illness and the 3/1 on her to be in the bottom two is one of the tastiest bets of the week.

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