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X Factor betting: Union J and James Arthur are in trouble again

by Josh Powell | November 21, 2012

#BackTheTrend

By Josh Powell | Pop Psychic

Close but no cigar. We fancied a shocking week on X Factor and we definitely got it. Last week we tipped up a bottom two combination of Ella Henderson and Union J at a decent price of 14/1 but it wasn’t to be as the boy band got through leaving Ella to battle it out with James Arthur.

Going in to week eight and with five acts left it is becoming even harder to pick out the value in a competition with more drama than a week in the life of Ken Barlow. Here are the key trends for week eight and a few interesting pointers from the world of social media.

  • Four of the seven acts eliminated in week eight had been in the bottom two in previous weeks
  • An act from the ‘overs’ category gets eliminated 43 per cent of the time
  • Of the acts left after week eight, 30 per cent are girls and 30 per cent are boys. Only 19 per cent are ‘group’ acts
  • James Arthur has almost seven times more Facebook likes and Twitter followers than Chris Maloney – 727,046 to 105,660
  • Rylan is more popular than Jahmene on Faceook and Twitter. Between likes and followers he has 430,991 to Jahmene’s 420,455

MALONEY SURVIVES: The Scouser was as shocked as the rest of us to get through

According to the statistics and trends you’d say Chris Maloney is the man to go but, in a move more controversial than Louis Walsh’s fashion sense I’m going against the form.

In all honesty Maloney is not going to sell out stadiums or have a chart-topping album. He’s going to be singing in Butlins, turning on Christmas lights in shopping centres and his only hope of appealing to the American market will be on a cruise ship. But he’ll survive another week.

Never underestimate the power of the Liverpudlian vote.

In what is being seen as a backlash against the X Factor Rylan Clark have every chance of staying in the competition. His entertaining banter with Gary Barlow is masking his poor performances and getting him votes. It would also be hard to see Jahmene Douglas being in the bottom two considering he has arguably the best voice on the show and will get plenty of votes based on his well documented back-story.

Therefore the 4/6 on Union J being in the bottom two and the 10/3 on James Arthur having to sing for survival may be worth a punt. If you fancy these two being in the sing-off on Sunday, the 9/1 has plenty of appeal.

At 12/1 the bookies don’t think James will be the man to go and the 10/3 on Union J to get the boot is more likely, despite them mopping up the teenage girl votes. If these acts are in the bottom two the deciding vote would be on Tulisa, with Gary and Nicole sending home Union J and Louis sending home James. If this is the case the 11/8 on there being a deadlock could be worth a punt.

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