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2013 Oscars betting: Insider tips straight from Hollywood

by Josh Powell | February 22, 2013

By Patricia Danaher | Hollywood Foreign Press Association

Oscars 2013 betting tips

Daniel Day Lewis must be exhausted. On the road promoting Lincoln since last October, he has picked up the Best Actor award at nearly every awards event since the Golden Globes in early January. The likelihood he will need to extend his mantelpiece to make space for his third Oscar is also extremely high (1/50 with Paddy Power), unless the Academy voters decide to give it to Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook who is a 66/1 shot with Paddy Power.

Steven Spielberg, who already has a pair of Oscars of his own could also take home another Oscar (1/4) but it would be because of the sentimental place which Abraham Lincoln holds in the hearts of Americans, rather than because the movie was a riveting drama. He and Day Lewis have gone everywhere together since making this movie, screening it for the House of Congress and hosting myriad events, including The Gathering in Dublin, where they pressed the flesh as regularly as any politician looking for the number one vote.

Spielberg might be an Ang Lee man

Ang Lee is the dark horse in the Best Director race (10/3), given what he accomplished cinematically with Life of Pi and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Academy voters give this gong to Lee over Spielberg.

Zero Dark Thirty has provoked more controversy than admiration for its unquestioning representation of torture. Jessica Chastain, who is everybody’s darling, could take an Oscar for this movie or maybe it be a best screenplay award for writer Mark Boal (7/4 with Paddy Power). This movie will not win Best Picture in a million years. That distinction will very likely go to Argo, which has been sweeping all before it this awards season.

Academy voters were unique in excluding director Ben Affleck for Best Director. So far Argo has picked up more awards than any other movie this entire awards season and his omission in the Best Director category made the Academy voters look petulant and out of touch. Argo could also take home a best adapted screenplay award for Chris Terrio. The Writers Guild award gave him this deserved award last Sunday night.

Jennifer Lawrence could be the golden girl

Jennifer Lawrence, who’s only 21, can do no wrong and has the charm and ease of someone twice her age and with a lifetime of experience. Everyone is cheering for her for her role in Silver Linings Playbook (8/13) and she is Jessica Chastain’s biggest threat in this category. Win or lose, expect to see an awful lot of this young woman in 2013 and beyond.

Jennifer Lawrence, who dissed all her rivals on a skit on Saturday Night Live recently, has joked: “It’s great to be nominated, but it’s better to win.”

It shows how well she already understands the business, and when she won her Golden Globe last month she said: “I want to thank Harvey Weinstein for killing whoever he had to kill to get me this award.”

Amy Adams (33/1) should win Best Supporting Actress, but there is every danger the Academy will instead give it to the far less deserving Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables. The campaigning for Hathaway’s first Oscar has been going on since it was announced she be in the movie two years ago.

Robert de Niro, Christoph Waltz and Philip Seymour Hoffman are neck and neck in the Best Supporting Actor role and it’s a very difficult category to call. If pushed, I’d put my money on de Niro for his masterful role in Silver Linings Playbook.

The Palestinian documentary Five Broken Cameras should win Best Documentary, but it would not be disgraceful if that award went to Searching for Sugar Man.

When Jack Nicholson won his last Oscar for As Good As It Gets, his thanks were succinct. Holding out his Oscar statue he said, “this ensures I’ll have work for the next few years.” For all the fancy frocks, tears and insincere “it’s great to be nominated” palaver we’ll hear on Sunday night, it is worth pointing out here that this is the business they call show.

Sure things are Argo and Lincoln to take home the most.

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