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Oscars 2013 form guide: Why you should back a good guy in a Historo-drama

by Josh Powell | February 22, 2013

By Aidan Elder | Oscars 2013

The glitz and glamour of the red carpet takes centre stage on Sunday as the biggest names in Hollywood get together to drink free alcohol and unconvincingly applaud the success of others at the Oscars. The fashion disasters, the teary speeches and the forced applause from nominees that didn’t win. The Oscars have it all.

If you’re the kind of punter that likes to back odds-on favourites at Lingfield on a Monday evening then this is going to be like Christmas, your birthday and a lap-dance from Mila Kunis all rolled into one. There are plenty of long odds-on favourites in the Oscars and going on recent history they have a tendency to oblige.

The Paddy Power Blog has put some serious work/time-wasting into examining Oscars betting patterns this year and we have written a form guide which should accurately predict how things will pan out on Sunday night in Los Angeles.

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Having spent years carrying Matt Damon, Ben Affleck should be in fine shape to pick up all the awards the trends predict will be coming his way. First up he directed historo-drama thriller Argo which is 1/7 to pick up the Best Film award.

The film has spent the last few months cleaning up every award going so not winning here would be a bigger shock than Adam Sandler appearing in a comedy that doesn’t make you want to kick him in his unmentionables. His balls. Being a historo-drama the form is on Argo’s side with eight previous winners classified as being in this not-at-all-vague category which we’re shoe-horning films in to.  Lincoln is Argo’s biggest challenger at 11/2 and falls into the same category. Which might be a slight concern for some favourite backers, but realistically this seems a fairly safe shout.

Life of Pi is a ‘weird fantasy world’ film and Les Miserables is an ‘annoying musical’ so you can pretty much write both of them off straight away.

Daniel Day Lewis’ mum will need to make some space on the mantelpiece because there’s more chance of Tom Cruise becoming Pope than Lewis missing out on the Best Actor awardHe is 1/50 for his portrayal of Abraham Lincoln in Lincoln and the trends are good.

Actors who play historical figures have won the award for Best Actor 30 per cent of the time in the last 30 years. Daniel Day Lewis has already racked up 34 Best Actor awards for Lincoln plus an ‘Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role’ award from the Screen Actors Guild. They’re very pedantic about their award names apparently.

blog_oscar-roleAs for the other of the ‘Oscars trilogy’, the Best Actress award, Jennifer Lawrence is the 8/13 favourite for her role in Silver Linings Playbook. It’s one of the biggest prices you’ll see around in the Oscars and as a brunette she has a great chance.

43 per cent of the last 30 Best Actress winners were brunette giving Lawrence a huge advantage going in to the competition. One of her nearest rivals is Jessica Chastain at 7/2 for her role in Zero Dark Thirty.

blog_oscar-hairThere are the occasional mind-blowing upsets at the Oscars.  Is Dances With Wolves really better than Goodfellas? Is Rocky Balboa a better character than Travis Bickle? Of course not.  But such glaring mistakes are few and far between and barring any major shocks you’ll be fairly safe backing good guys in historo-dramas for some time to come.

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