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Grand National Betting Tactics: #4 Logic is over-rated

by Aidan Elder | April 4, 2013

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Picking the horse you want to back for the Grand National is difficult. Some people like to do the painstaking hours of research and analysis while others just rock up, throw a dart at the racecard and hope for the best. No matter what tactic you choose, there’s no guarantee of success. So in honour of the various methods people use, here’s our breakdown of the ways to pick a Grand National horse. Here’s part four of a five part series that will hopefully get you closer to landing a winner.

#4 Logic is over-rated, bring on the nags

If a horse finished a wheezy last of 30 horses down in Plumpton behind a three-legged horse, a sleep-walking cat and a leisurely glacier early in the season, don’t lose the faith. Some trainers will have had the Grand National in mind for their horse long in advance and anything the horse does in the meantime is simply a tune-up for the main event of no real consequence.

One of the reasons there are so many ‘shock’ results in the Grand National is because too much emphasis is put on form and recent runs. There’s a logic to backing on form, but that suggests there’s a logic to the Grand National, which there clearly isn’t. It’s a chaotic race and where being the best horse is no guarantee that you’ll stay out of trouble and make it around safely.

For bit of value, it’s worth looking at the very worst form in the race and going with it. Mon Mome had been beaten by a combined 99 lengths before he landed his National at 100/1 in 2009. Silver Birch hadn’t really had a sniff of victory in the two and a half years and nine runs before he claimed the prize in 2007 at 33/1 and lots of other winners have gone into the race with records that look about as promising as Justin Bieber’s monkey-rearing skills.

This year, there’s no shortage of apparent no-hopers who might make an interesting bet. Weird Al hasn’t finished four of his last five races and finished fourth of five runners in the other, but he’s a classy horse and can’t be ruled out. Oscar Time finished last in both of his last two races by a total of 130 lengths and hasn’t won a race in nearly three and half years, but last year’s second place finisher can still get into the frame this Saturday. Always Waining, Becauseicouldntsee, Harry The Viking and Auroras Encore all have similarly uninspiring form, but it’s the National so don’t rule them out.

Some of the horses with the worst form heading into the Grand National (since last win):

What A Friend – 524P33F78

Weird Al – 3PF4PP

Join Together – P372P

Oscar Time – 52263244U60

Always Waining – 78

Tatenen – 5U676

Quiscover Fontaine – 0F685

Rare Bob – P345053B8643

Becauseicouldntsee – 242F63F22F63PP45

Harry The Viking – 2PP90

Mr Moonshine – 35072360264

Auroras Encore – 2U0P45F5

READ THE REST OF THE SERIES:

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