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Last minute Grand National tips: A stat attack to find you a winner

by Josh Powell | April 6, 2013
ALL THAT JAZZ: Chicago Grey hits plenty of Grand National trends

ALL THAT JAZZ: Chicago Grey hits plenty of Grand National trends from the last 20 years

By Josh Powell | Aintree Grand National

You are stranded on an island with just a ball called Wilson as a friend. You have just got back from canoeing around the world in a bid to fake your own death. You are under hypnosis courtesy of Uri Geller and his bendy spoons.

There aren’t many reasons why you wouldn’t know that today is the Grand National, the world’s greatest steeplechase. Anyone who is anyone has a tip, whether it is based on form, trends, colour, name or superstition.

There’s not long now until the runners head to post for the race at 4.15pm and if you’re still struggling for a bet, The Paddy Power Blog has come to your rescue. We have sat down and scoured the trends over the last 20 years to try to figure out the formula for picking a Grand National winner.

Unfortunately we probably haven’t discovered it, but we have come up with a load of juicy stats that point to one horse in particular who might be worth a few bob this afternoon.

All of the following stats are based on the winners of the Grand National in the last 20 years.

  • 65 per cent have been aged nine or ten 
  • 55 per cent have been Irish bred
  • 95 per cent have been brown, chestnut or bay. Basically brown
  • 80 per cent have had three or four syllables in their name
  • 65 per cent have had 10-20 starts already over fences
  • 75 per cent have had three-five wins already over fences
  • 45 per cent have finished first or second on their start before the National
  • 75 per cent have been officialy rated either between 138-142 or 152-157

And the winners is… Chicago Grey
(Although he is the wrong colour!)

Yes, the Gordon Elliot-trained Chicago Grey is the horse who hits the majority of these trends incredibly unsurprisingly he is well supported at 12/1. Paul Carberry is the man taking the reins on a horse that was brought down in last year’s race. Chicago Grey manages to pretty much nail our formula, his only flaw being that he is grey in colour.


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