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Why it isn’t wise backing Tottenham to finish in the top four

by Josh Powell | May 11, 2013
Andre Villas Boas

TOO LITTLE TOO LATE: The Champions League probably won’t feature Spurs next season

By Josh Powell | Premier League betting news

The fight for the Premier League title fizzled out faster than an Audley Harrison bout. Manchester United had the crown won before the second week of February, around the same time you forgot Valentines Day and spent a night in the doghouse.

Luckily for punters the battle for fourth looks like it will go down to the wire, but you’d have some serious cajones to be backing Tottenham to upset the odds. Either that or you’re blindly bias, I’m looking at you Alan Sugar.

Spurs are 2/1 to steal a Champions League place but Sunday’s away trip to Stoke could derail any ideas of trips to the San Siro and it will probably mean Gareth Bale will be on his bike. Here is the Paddy Power Blog’s loose predictions of what might happen in the last two games of the season.

May 12 – Stoke v Tottenham

  • All four Premier League meetings at the Britannia have ended 2-1 with both sides winning two each
  • Three of the last four head-to-heads have ended all square
  • Spurs have won just 50 per cent of their away games

Loose prediction time: Stoke 1-1 Tottenham

May 14 – Arsenal v Wigan

  • Wigan have travelled to Arsenal 10 times and the Gunners have won nine. They have won six of these without conceding
  • Arsenal are unbeaten in eight games at home in the league
  • Arsene Wenger’s side have won seven and drawn two of nine home games against bottom half sides.

Lo0se prediction time: Arsenal 3-0 Wigan

May 19 – Tottenham v Sunderland

  • Tottenham have won nine of the 11 Premier League games they’ve played against Sunderland at White Hart Lane
  • In 56 per cent of those games they have covered the one goal handicap
  • Spurs have kept just four clean sheets in 18 home games this season

Loose prediction time: Tottenham 3-1 Sunderland

May 19 – Newcastle v Arsenal

  • Arsenal have lost just one of the last 14 meetings with Newcastle
  • Four of Arsenal’s last five games at St James’ Park have ended all square
  • In nine away games against bottom half teams, Arsenal have kept six clean sheets

Loose prediction time: Newcastle 0-0 Arsenal

So there you have it, using solid stats, plenty of guesswork and a sprinkling of pure luck we think Arsenal will hold on to fourth with 71 points, a single point ahead of their London rivals. The Gunners are a skinny price, odds-on at 1/3, to finish in the top four but that price will look huge if Tottenham slip up against Stoke.

Do you agree that Arsenal have fourth sewn up? Or can Spurs turn it around with two games to go? See the latest odds for a top four finish right here

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