By Josh Powell | Monaco Grand Prix
It’s Christmas come early for motor racing fans this weekend at the Monaco Grand Prix. If you’re not into motor racing but you enjoy some celebrity spotting or checking out hot girls in bikinis it’s probably Christmas come early for you as well.
Bernie Ecclestone takes his merry band of Formula One superstars to the playground of the rich and famous in one of the sport’s glamour meetings. You could bring the lifestyle of the stars into your living room with a 16/1 punt this weekend, without the hassle of having Ecclestone hogging the remote. It might not pay for a yacht but it could certainly pay for a few drinks at the Sunday pub quiz.
The myth that Monaco isn’t a good track for overtaking pretty much hits the nail on the head. There have been just 250 overtakes at the track in the last 25 years, and 60 per cent of the last 25 races have had just eight overtakes or less. It might not be the most exciting track for manoeuvres, but there’s always the possibility of someone crashing into the sea.
Pole position is crucially important at Monaco therefore. It’s quite important to be at the front at wedding buffets and when you’re on the platform waiting for a train in rush hour, but by far the most valuable pole position is at Monaco.
- 52 per cent of drivers who have been on pole at Monaco in the last 25 years have won.
- Even more impressively eight of the last nine Monaco winners started on pole position.
- Of the 12 winners that did not start on pole, six started second on the grid and five started third. Just once in 25 years has someone started lower than third and won. That was Olivier Panis in 1996 who started fourteenth.
Triple World Champ Sebastian Vettel is aiming for his fourth crown on the spin and sits top of the driver’s championship so far. He has two wins to his name this season and is 11/4 to win in Monaco on Sunday, but the value is on him being on pole, winning the race and posting the fastest lap at 16/1.
The trends show that if you’re on pole, you win the race. Vettel was third on the grid in 2010 and on pole when he won in 2011 before having mechanical problems last year, qualifying ninth. The German has two pole positions to his name already and can make it three at Monaco.
Then it would all come down to who is nailing the fastest lap of the race.
- 89 per cent of winners at Monaco in the last nine years have set either the second or third fastest lap of the race, but not the quickest.
- Just one winner in the last nine years has set the fastest lap and that was Fernando Alonso in 2007 who banged in a 1:15.284.
The stats aren’t as promising here but you’ve read this far you might as well keep going. Being in front in a Grand Prix is like dating a supermodel. Obviously everyone wants to be you and life is pretty great, but on the flip side you can’t deploy DRS and take a bit of time off your fastest lap.
At 16/1 the value is there for Sebastian Vettel to nail the hat-trick. If he qualifies on pole he wins, and then it’s all about knocking in some seriously fast lap times and staying out of the barrier.
Not a lot to ask of a triple world champ? Find out the latest odds on 19 Monaco Grand Prix markets including the hat-trick