Football pundit and analyst Andy Gray with his thoughts on the all-German Champions League final on Saturday night at Wembley.
Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund, Live Sky Sports 1, 7.45pm
This has the potential to be a wonderful final with two of the most attractive teams in Europe this season going head-to-head for the ultimate prize.
They know each other well so hopefully we get a really open game that is attractive for the neutral. But I think Bayern have the advantage in that they’ve felt the pain of losing last year in the Allianz Arena and will be determined not to let that happen again.
Dortmund gave advance warning that they were a side to be reckoned with when they played last season’s Premier League champions Manchester City in the group stages. However, they’ve conceded 42 goals in the Bundesliga this season and that’s a lot for a team that who finished second – by a distance – to champions Bayern. If they have a weakness it’s in defence and that could spell disaster against a team like Munich who have multiple goalscorers.
If you want a straight win bet I’d have to go for Bayern at 4/5 but I do expect both teams to score given the amount of striking talent on show. That’s a 4/6 chance.
Robert Lewandowski is a real threat for Dortmund up front though and Paddy is taking a risk with his Money Back Special as the Polish striker – who got four against Real Madrid in the first leg of their semi- final – will be a danger all night. Munich are miserly when it comes to conceding goals and with Mario Mandzukic, Thomas Muller, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Mario Gomez all capable of getting goals – Dortmund’s defence will have their work cut out.
If we get the entertaining game I’m hoping for I can see Munich running out 3-1 or 4-2 winners and they’re 12/1 and 40/1 shots respectively to do that. If you don’t fancy predicting the score, Bayern to win by a two-goal margin is 4/1 and offers some value for money.
If you’re looking for a less obvious goalscorer Franck Ribery at 11/4 to score at anytime or 6/1 to score first for his team could be an alternative to some of the more fancied choices for Bayern.
Jakub Błaszczykowski scored 11 goals in 25 games for Dortmund this season and at 4/1 anytime or 13/2 to score first for his team also looks like a bit of value.
- Betting: Kick off with our Champions League coupon here