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Murray Watch: The seeds of expectation grow for Andy Murray

by Rob Dore | July 2, 2013

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By Rob Dore | Wimbledon

If five years is a sufficiently large enough period from which to draw scientific conclusions about tennis then Novak Djokovic has absolutely no chance of winning this year’s Wimbledon crown. And that’s a scientific fact!

The 2011 winner made the fatal mistake of coming in to this year’s tournament as the number one seed. Even a cursory glance over the results of recent years would have show the Serb that the number one seed absolutely never ends up as the top dog at SW19. Ever! And by ‘ever’ I mean at no point since waaaaaay back in 2007. For some, five-year-old people, that’s a lifetime ago.

Since Roger Federer won his fourth straight Wimbledon title as the number one seed in 2007 the trophy has gone to four second seeds and one third seed.

Last Five Wimbledon Winners

  • 2012 – Federer (3rd seed)
  • 2011 – Djokovic (2nd seed)
  • 2010 – Nadal (2nd seed)
  • 2009 – Federer (2nd seed)
  • 2008 – Nadal (2nd seed)

With this year’s third seed, Federer, already out following his early loss, the path of fate has been cleared for Andy Murray to end 77 years of centre court hurt.

Murray still has a quarter-final and semi-final to navigate before facing Djokovic in the final. Seeing how easily both have progressed through their sides of the draw that match-up looks inevitable.

All the money is on Nole

As far as the punting has gone all the money has been going on Novak Djokovic. So far Paddy Power has taken over 250% more on the Serbian to win his second Wimbledon title than on Murray to win his first. We’ve also never taken as much on any individual to win Wimbledon as we have on Djokovic this year.

The odds, the punters and the panel which decided the seeding are all behind Djokovic to win. The stats from the last five years say otherwise.

The betting patterns are an equally dubious indicator with several well-backed favourites falling short in recent times. Most notably Federer had twice as much money on him to win in 2008 when beaten by Nadal. In 2011 there was three times as much money on Nadal to win as there was on the winner Djokovic.

The day of the top seed is dead and Andy Murray is unquestionably going to win this year’s Wimbledon title. And that’s a scientific fact.

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