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Matt Chapman exclusive: My July Cup tip and a 20/1 shot at York to get Saturday night rocking

by Sean Goff | July 12, 2013

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Matt Chapman’s | Newmarket & York preview

I love Newmarket’s July Cup (3.50)– some of my favourite horses have won the race – but it can throw up some strange winners that you end up thinking to yourself: “How the hell did that win?

The reason is that the draw often plays a huge part, especially as the 6f dash often features a biggish field.

Don’t get me wrong – if you are good you will still win. Take a look at Oasis Dream, Royal Academy, Ajdal, Green Desert, the amazing Chief Singer, Habibti and Moorestyle.

This time there is not a big field (12 runners) and the best horses on official ratings – and the market leaders – are Shea Shea and Lethal Force.

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MAY THE FORCE BE WITH YOU:  Clive Cox’s runner ticks all the boxes

But I think there is a real problem for Shea Shea as he will need to be delivered late and needs a strong gallop. That also applies to the King’s Stand hero Sole Power who beat Shea Shea at the Royal fixture.

I love Sole Power – but I don’t love him over 6f off a soft pace. Sorry Paddy. You hear me?

July Cup

I see absolutely no reason why Lethal Force (4/1) won’t do exactly what he did in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes, set a slow pace and quicken inside the final two furlongs.

He’s grabbed us all by surprise – but conditions will suit him here and I can’t have him out of the first three.  Jockey Adam Kirby is a plus.  A knocking each-way bet.

Well handicapped

Meanwhile at York,  there’s the 20 runner John Smith’s Cup (2.55) to get our teeth into beforehand.   Stencive looks a worthy favourite and went close at Royal Ascot but at four times the price I’m going to take an each-way chance with Saptapadi (20/1). I’d ignore his last run behind Brown Panther – he’s much better than that – and is trained by the canny Brian Ellison.

He stays strongly and is very well handicapped on his best form – having run off a mark of 109 in the past. He’s now rated 94. I think this could be his day to sit behind the leaders and power home. If he wins around 20s it will be a massive Yeeehaaa!

John Smiths Cup

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