Political firestarter Guido Fawkes gives his opinion on David Cameron’s looming Cabinet reshuffle for the Paddy Power Blog…
A Cabinet reshuffle is expected this week to freshen up the government in time for what should be a focused Conservative Party conference for David Cameron, if the polls hold up for him over the summer they should be able to turn their fire to the opposition. Nick Clegg’s Lib Dem party conferences are invariably expected to be difficult for him and he usually manages to breeze through them in the end.
Cameron is hemmed in more than most Prime Ministers. He heads a coalition so has to defer to Nick Clegg on keeping Lib Dems sitting around the Cabinet table. Dave also aimed to get more women into parliament – his target was 30% – he has so far only four women in Cabinet (18%). That makes it difficult for him to sack a woman without bringing another woman into the Cabinet as a replacement.
How can punters make money from the reshuffle?
Cameron is criticised for being too posh and his government of being a “chumocracy” of privately educated Oxbridge graduates, 15 out of 22 (68%) of the Cabinet went to Oxford or Cambridge, which is not exactly flying the flag for the government’s much touted social mobility agenda. All very interesting you say, but how can us punters make money out of this?
I am going to stick my neck out and say that Cameron is too hemmed in to promote another woman into Cabinet.
- Liz Truss is talked up for a promotion, Maria Miller is said to be for the plank.
- There is no way the press, the opposition or for that matter women voters will let him reduce the number of women in Cabinet.
It will either rise or stay the same, despite him wanting to put more female faces in the Cabinet my feeling is the number will remain unchanged, so back the favourite, that the number of women in Cabinet will remain between 10%-20%. If you think it is going to be a big reshuffle, take the 20% to 30% bet.
The other bet is on how many in the reshuffled Cabinet will have gone to Oxford or Cambridge universities. Currently 15 out of the 22 (68%) Cabinet members went to Oxbridge. I’m plumping for the 2/1 bet that 60% to 70% of the Cabinet will still have come from one of those two universities.
You might think this caution means I am not expecting a big reshuffle, you would be right. It is going to be steady as she goes with most changes in the lower ranks.
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