Paddy I love taking money off you, you hear me?
We banged in Garswood (9/4f) yesterday and a couple of decent-placed runners as well following on from Novellist and Lethal Force the last two weekends.
Today we have two massive events with the Irish Sea splitting them – the Qipco Sussex Stakes at Goodwood and the hugely-competitive Galway Plate at Ballybrit.
Let’s get straight to the Sussex Downs, and we are all set for another smash up between the 2,000 Guineas hero Dawn Approach and Toronado, who chased the former home in the St James’s Palace Stakes.
Some might say there is not much between the two, but I think there is a massive amount and am in no doubt (always a mistake to say things like this) DAWN APPROACH (3.05) will come out on top again.
Imagine Man United beat Man City twice despite United’s best player being sent off in the second game – you would definitely back Man U to get the hat-trick.
That’s how I see it, as Dawn Approach pulled hard at Ascot but still won. He has a proper pacemaker here in Leitir Mor, who is no mug, and I expect him to win again. Declaration of War is clearly decent, but he has to give plenty of weight away which will not be easy.
The Coventry runner-up PARBOLD (3.40) runs in the Vintage Stakes (3.40). He might just be a bit of value against Richard Hannon’s Toormore.
Over at Galway the big question is whether Carlingford Lough gets a run as he is first reserve. At the time of writing I don’t know whether he will. If he does that will change many people’s views. So watch the reserve system carefully.
Many will stick with Dermot Weld, and we all know what a great trainer he is. The fact that Majestic Concorde has not run over jumps for 735 days should not put you off. But it sort of puts me off! I can’t help it!
The horse I like is LAGANBANK. His form at Galway reads 1-3-F-2 so bar the jumping mishap he clearly goes well at this idiosyncratic track.
Laganbank is trained by a genius in Willie Mullins and has David Casey on board. He was on top of Ansar when he scored in 2004 so there is nothing wrong with the old boy.
At Tipperary last time Laganbank was a good winner for Ruby Walsh, and the only slight question mark over him is the distance, as he usually runs over slightly shorter.
That said, he’s still a lightly raced seven-year-old open to improvement. Fingers crossed we get a good run in a ridiculously hard event.
Good luck on a tough day. Yeeehaaa!