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Why winning the Community Shield wouldn’t be great news for Manchester United

by Josh Powell | August 9, 2013

Comm Shield MBS hdr

By Josh Powell | Community Shield 2013

Is winning the Community Shield a good thing for David Moyes and Manchester United? Well, not exactly, but it’s not terrible news either. In a swift conclusion, history shows that this game is pretty pointless and has no bearing on the league season, but it’s a decent punting opportunity for football fans after the Summer drought, and there’s a tidy Money-Back Special on Robin van Persie to boot.

History might show that the annual curtain-raiser has no real significance on the next nine months, but we’ve gone the best part of three months without football so it’d be crazy not to get stuck in to some wild statistics.

  • Since World War II, just 15 of the 64 Community Shield winners have gone on to win the league that year. That’s just a 23 per cent success rate
  • 55 per cent of Community Shield winners finished in the top two and 72 per cent of them finished in the top four
  • 20 per cent of Community Shield winners went on to finish seventh or lower in the league the same year

On the bright side for David Moyes, that shows there is a pretty strong chance that if Manchester United beat Wigan on Sunday, they should go on to guarantee Champions League football by finishing in the top four.

If you’re a pessimistic man who listens to James Blunt songs and moans that it is ‘too hot’ during the summer, you’ll have noticed the Community Shield winners have almost the same chance of winning the league as finishing seventh or lower according to the trends.

  • Manchester United have won the Community Shield 16 times in the last 65 years.
  • 38 per cent of the time the Red Devils have gone on to win the league title.
  • 19 per cent of the time United have gone on to finish eighth or worse.

All in all winning on Sunday would get a lot of the Twitter haters to back off David Moyes. At least temporarily until they remember United still haven’t signed anyone and the PR team at Old Trafford are hurriedly preparing a statement to announce that Anderson’s new diet is ‘like having a new player’. It’s not. He’s still crap.

Winning the Community Shield might not be worthwhile in the long run though if you’re a man who lives by the stats. A 38 per cent record of winning the league is the kind of figure that would lean you towards sacrificing the year’s first trophy at Wembley by starting Tony Valencia in goal for a laugh.

Whatever happens between United and Wigan on Sunday, you can guarantee that pretty much nobody will remember, or particularly care too much in a few weeks time. Unless of course you win big or benefit from Paddy’s MBS on RVP.

Then you can brag about it all you want as you collect another round from the bar…

Comm Shield MBS tn

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