By Josh Powell | World Cup Qualifiers
The international week is almost over and there are just seven days before our midweek blues can be banished by the likes of Lionel Messi, Arjen Robben and Mario Balotelli as Champions League football returns.
The prospect of watching Gareth Bale and Cristiano Ronaldo team up to take on the best in Europe is mouth-watering, but this week we are still stuck with Roy Hodgson’s striker crisis and Giovanni Trapattoni’s desperate demise in charge of Ireland.
Although that doesn’t mean punters who love a 3.00pm Saturday accumulator have to spend their Tuesday evening watching the Great British Bake Off and discussing the merits of risking a tricky souffle.
- In the 187 World Cup 2014 Qualifiers in Europe, 145 of them have featured over 1.5 goals – which is about 78 per cent.
- Tonight there are 22 qualifiers, so using this line of 78 per cent, we can estimate that 17 of the 22 matches should feature more than 1.5 goals.
According to the magic computer that generates the prices in Power Tower, there are five matches tonight in which over 1.5 goals is a 2/5 shot. This is the biggest price in all the 22 games, so in theory, that makes these five games the least likely to have over 1.5 goals.
The five matches in question are…
Belarus v France
Ukraine v England
Macedonia v Scotland
Cyprus v Slovenia
Georgia v Finland
Handily that leaves us 17 games which nails the 78 per cent line we measured earlier. A £1 accumulator on these 17 games would return £41 if they all obliged this evening.
40/1 over 1.5 goals accumulator
Russia v Israel 1/4
Lithuania v Liechtenstein 1/4
Armenia v Denmark 3/10
Kazakhstan v Sweden 1/5
Norway v Switzerland 4/11
Malta v Bulgaria 2/7
Romania v Turkey 3/10
Luxembourg v Northern Ireland 4/11
Slovakia v Bosnia-Herzegovina 1/3
Andorra v Holland 1/33
Hungary v Estonia 2/9
Austria v Ireland 3/10
Italy v Czech Republic 4/11
Wales v Serbia 4/11
Faroe Islands v Germany 1/40
San Marino v Poland 1/66
Greece v Latvia 2/7
A 40/1 international acca isn’t a bad way to spend your Tuesday evening and should give you a healthy e-wallet for when the Premier League returns this weekend.
The next four games least likely to have over 1.5 goals according to the bookies are…
- Wales’ clash with Serbia
- Italy’s game with Czech Republic
- Northern Ireland’s trip to Luxembourg
- And the match between Norway and Switzerland.
All four of these games are priced at 4/11 to have over 1.5 goals.
Taking these out gives you a 13-fold for tonight’ games, which is just 59 per cent of the 22 games. It takes out the nine matches least likely to feature over 1.5 goals but still pays out 11/1 with an extra little safety cushion.
It’s the type of acca for people who always carry a rain mac on them, and usher the words ‘just in case’ any time you mention that it’s 29 degrees celsius outside.
There was a reason Mrs Russell taught me maths and statistics for five years in secondary school, and breaking down whopping football coupons is probably the reason why.
If this acca doesn’t come in, I might have to go and egg her house.