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Why the trends suggest you’d be best backing plenty of goals in the FA Cup replays

We've crunched the numbers to help you find the best bet in this week's FA Cup Third Round replays

by Josh Powell | January 14, 2014

Fulham, Norwich and Manchester City are flying the flag for the top flight clubs in eight FA Cup replays this week, as football fans are treated to some more midweek action.

OK, Plymouth v Port Vale on a Tuesday might not live up to Man City v Barcelona and the Champions League theme song – but it does give us the chance to stick on an acca, head to the pub and avoid a night of Don’t Tell The Bride on BBC3.

Plenty of people will be putting Man City in their accumulators and will be taking them on the handicap at home to Blackburn, who must fear a titanic thumping from the high-scoring Citizens. Peterborough are hot favourites to beat Kidderminster and Sheffield Wednesday are fancied to see off Macclesfield but backing the goals market might be a more profitable option.

Silva and Aguero celebrate

  • In nine of the last ten years, FA Cup third round replays have produced considerably more goals than the original matches.

As the stats show, barring last year’s fixtures, there were more goals in the replayed games than the original totals – in some years the number of goals in replays was more than double the tally in the original clash.

Number of goals in replays compared to the original fixtures

2012/13 – 11 Third Round replays: 23 per cent decrease
2011/12 – Six Third Round replays: 88 per cent increase
2010/11 – Four Third Round replays: 25 per cent increase
2009/10 – Seven Third Round replays: 60 per cent increase
2008/09 – Nine Third Round replays: 140 per cent increase
2007/08 – 12 Third Round replays: 27 per cent increase
2006/07 – 11 Third Round replays: 27 per cent increase
2005/06 – Nine Third Round replays: 100 per cent increase
2004/05 – Six Third Round replays: 20 per cent increase
2003/04 – Ten Third Round replays: 8 per cent increase

Ball hits the net

The stats are skewed slightly by some unusual results but you get the basic trend.

The reason the increases in 08/09 and 05/06 are so drastic is because there were so few goals scored in the first round of matches. 10 goals in nine games in 2009 and 14 goals in nine games in 2006. Similarly it is smaller in 2003/04 because there were a whopping 24 goals in the 26 original fixtures.

In the eight original games this season that have now gone to replays, there were 20 goals in total. A pretty reasonable average of just under 2.5 goals a game.

Generic goal being scored

Here at the Paddy Power Blog we would fancy that to go up around 30 per cent based on the ten-year trends which would give us a total of 26 goals in the eight replays combined.

That’s a 6/4 shot with Paddy Power who have priced up the games like so…

21 goals or less: 15/8
22 to 25 goals inclusive: 15/8
26 goals or more: 6/4

It would be unusual to see 21 goals or less in the eight replays, taking into account the usual increase, and with City’s incredible scoring rate at home (59 goals in just 15 games), we’re hoping a truckload of goals can help out the Friday disco-fund.

  • Take a chance on a hatful of goals and get the latest odds here:
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FA Cup Third Round Replays:

Fulham v Norwich
MK Dons v Wigan
Peterborough v Kidderminster
Plymouth v Port Vale
Preston v Ipswich
Sheffield Wednesday v Macclesfield
Watford v Bristol City
Man City v Blackburn

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