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Arsenal v Man Utd betting preview: How this one is won in the second half

History suggests it's going to be a nervy opener but Arsenal will come out on top after the sides tuck into their oranges. Sorry Dave.

by Josh Powell | February 12, 2014

We’ve crunched the numbers ahead of Man United’s trip to the Emirates to face Arsenal tonight (BT Sport 1, 7.45pm) and it doesn’t look like it’s going to get any better for the Champions.

United dropped more points in the league on Sunday and Arsenal, despite challenging for the league, are coming off the back of a 5-1 hammering by Liverpool. Neither side will want to slip any further behind in their respective hunt for silverware/Champions League spot, and the trends suggest it will be tighter than a pair of skinny jeans on Big Sam Allardyce.

  • Arsenal’s last five league games at home have been 0-0 at the break (v Crystal Palace, Cardiff, Fulham, Chelsea and Everton)
  • They have gone on to win three of these games and draw two

So as an Arsenal fan, going in 0-0 at the break isn’t a complete disaster. Admittedly you’ve paid over the odds for your ticket and are about to indulge in the most expensive steak pie around, however the form points to a winning 45 minutes after the players have tucked into their oranges.

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Man United have been just as goal-shy in the opening half on the road this season, however they have very mixed fortunes when the players return from their half-time team-talk.

  • United have failed to score before the break in 50 per cent of their league games away from home this season (6/12)
  • They have lost 67 per cent of those games in which they have failed to score in the first half (L4, W2)

The stats are pointing to a stalemate at the break and with Arsenal coming off the back of going 4-0 down in 20 minutes and United under Moyes being, well, United under Moyes, it should be a cagey opener. That makes the 0-0 half-time draw at 2/1 look particularly promising.

  • 9 of the last 20 PL meetings between Arsenal and Man United have been 0-0 at the break
  • Of those 9 games, four of them have been at Arsenal – The Gunners have won two and drawn two

David Moyes

Unfortunately for David Moyes, history suggests it is set to get a touch worse before it gets any better. A stinging thought considering just how bad it is currently. In the last ten years United have never won a league game at Arsenal when it has been scoreless at the break and the HT/FT bet of Draw/Arsenal is a 9/2 shot.

For the more adventurous punter who is eyeing up a juicy payout before Valentines Day (or a Friday night pub session) there are a few correct scores that might be worth a nibble. The HT/FT correct score of 0-0 HT and 1-0 to Arsenal at FT is a 12/1 shot while 0-0 at HT and 2-0 to the Gunners at FT is available at 25/1.

  • What’s it Gunner be? Put your money where your mouth is with the latest odds on tonight’s game: Desktop | Mobile

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