There is a thin line between optimism and stupidity. It’s a line that is broken often. Sometimes when we try to dance with a member of the opposite sex in the disco, other times when we convince ourselves that we can definitely finish that 8,000 calorie breakfast in Athlone.
But a Stupid Punt is not always a bad punt. Every now and again you’ll score on the dancefloor, you’ll demolish that breakfast and you’ll click a winning bet at massive odds. If it all happens in the same weekend then you’ll have probably peaked at life.
The Punting Hall of Fame awaits more entrants this week, so here are three massive punts this and a few stat bombs to accompany your craziest bets on the top flight.
Scorecast: Ryan Shawcross to score first and Stoke to beat Chelsea 2-1
One punter has £1 on at 650/1
- Stoke have won 2-1 away to Chelsea just once in their history – in a league match in September 1965
- Ryan Shawcross has scored just once this season – against Crystal Palace – but has had 18 shots, giving him a conversion rate of just 5.6 per cent
- Jose Mourinho’s unbeaten home league record at Stamford Bridge stands at 76 games and Stoke haven’t won away at Chelsea in the league since 1974
Stoke’s record away to Chelsea is more depressing than a date with Mark Lawrenson, and Jose Mourinho has never tasted league defeat at Stamford Bridge while he’s been at the Chelsea helm. Throw in a misfiring defender in the shape of Ryan Shawcross to score first and this punt crosses the thin line between optimistic and ridiculous.
Scorecast: Andy Carroll to score first and West Ham to beat Liverpool 3-0
One punter has £1 on at 700/1
- West Ham have beaten Liverpool 3-0 at Upton Park once before in 1995. That day Don Hutchinson bagged twice as Liverpool finished fourth in the league
- The last time Liverpool were beaten 3-0 on the road was the opening day of the 2012/13 season when West Brom did the damage and Daniel Agger saw red
- Andy Carroll has just a 38 per cent accuracy rate this season, hitting 13 shots high or wide, and just the eight on target. He’s bagged just two goals in nine appearances
Liverpool are aiming for their ninth win on the spin in the Premier League and although they might not have it all their own way at Upton Park, it’s tough to see West Ham getting a result. It’s even harder to see Big Sam’s side racking up a 3-0 victory and that makes this a very Stupid Punt.
Scorecast: Romelu Lukaku to score first and Everton to draw 4-4 with Arsenal
One punter is on at 800/1
- There have been 44 draws in 201 games between Arsenal and Everton – a 22 per cent strike rate – but these sides have never drawn 4-4
- Arsenal have played 45 away games in the Premier League since they last scored exactly four goals away from home – that was in December 2011 when they beat Wigan 4-0
- Lukaku has an impressive 65 per cent accuracy from 55 shots and with 12 goals in 24 games is bang on the ‘goal every other game’ strike rate for a Premier League forward
Arsenal know how to put four past Everton, after sticking that many past the Toffees in the FA Cup last month, but away from home is a different kettle of fish. These sides aren’t strangers to the draw when they meet, and you could argue that they’re due a 4-4, but that’s an optimistic way of looking at the stats.
- Have your own effort of making the Punting Hall of Fame with all the latest Premier League odds here: Desktop | Mobile