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Can Arsenal Finish In The Top 4? Computer Says…..Probably

by Rob Dore | April 15, 2014

Just 10 Premier League games ago the Gunners were leading the Premier League. Two wins, three draws and four defeats in those nine games since has seen Arsene Wenger’s side fall from first to fifth. Out of the Champions League places and in danger of failing to qualify for the first time in 17 seasons.

With four games to go Arsenal are back on track as Everton slipped up against Crystal Palace in their bid to finish above the Gunners for the first time in the Premier League era? In fact it was 1988 when the Merseysiders last finished above the Londoners.

WAY BACK WEN: Arsenal last won the Premier League title in 2004

WAY BACK WEN: Arsenal last won the Premier League title in 2004

On what will be the 10-year anniversary since Arsenal last won a Premier League title, are they on the verge of blowing what at one point looked like a title challenging season or can Arsene muster all his managerial powers to secure Champions League football for the 17th season in a row?

The Myth of the Late Season Collapse

We looked at the figures and since Arsenal last won a Premier League title there has been no definitive pattern of bottling it at the end of the season.
Over the past nine seasons Arsenal’s average points for the first 28 games of their season is 1.73 points per game. Over the course of the final ten games, when you would expect the bottling to happen, Arsenal’s average points per game drops to 1.72.
In fact over the final five games of the last nine seasons, Arsenal’s points per game average is 1.84.

Myth Busted.

wenger_stats_33games

Right Place, Right Time

Only three times over the last nine seasons have Arsenal had more points after 33 games than they do now. In fact their average points total after 33 games over the last nine seasons is 64 points. So, according to the previous nine seasons, they’re right on track for Champions League football.

Arsenal have the ‘easier’ run in.

Starting with the win over West Ham on Tuesday night, the Gunners certainly appear to have the easier final stretch. Yes there are no easy games in the Premier League but West Ham, Hull and Newcastle are all safe with nothing to challenge for and West Brom and Norwich are struggling against relegation for a reason.

Everton lost to Crystal Palace mid-week and face Manchester United on Easter Sunday as well as potentially tricky game against away to Hull and Southampton.

Arsenal’s final five

Arsenal v West Ham   w3-1
Hull v Arsenal
Arsenal v Newcastle
Arsenal v West Brom
Norwich v Arsenal

Everton’s Final Five

Everton v Crystal Palace L2-3
Everton v Man Utd
Southampton v Everton
Everton v Man City
Hull v Everton

 

  • Will Arsenal get their Top 4 push back on track against West Ham? Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile
  • To finish in the top 4. Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

 

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