You might normally associate Surrey with Genesis, Fatboy Slim, and always being featured on repeats of Police Camera Action on ITV4. But this weekend London’s next door neighbour, once again plays host to the richest and most prestigious flat race in Britain.
The Epsom Derby is being run for the 235th time, and Aidan O’Brien is aiming for a mightily impressive third Derby on the spin. The great trainer saddles the red-hot favourite Australia, with son Joseph O’Brien taking the ride for his old man.
There’s been plenty of hype around Australia, and clearly plenty of money. The 2,000 Guineas third was 20/1 back in September and is now 11/8 after being as short as 8/11 last month. But if you’re still looking for a punt, and don’t fancy doing even the tiniest bit of form study, here are where the rest of Paddy’s punters are putting their cash.
AUSTRALIA 11/8 – 48 per cent
The big favourite unsurprisingly dominates the book with almost half of the cash riding on him. Aidan O’Brien is bidding for his fifth Derby win, and Joseph is hoping they can replicate the father-son act of Camelot in 2012. Australia’s best win was in a Group 3 at Leopardstown in September, but fans will be buoyed by a place in the 2,000 Guineas – just half a length behind the winner – despite Aidan O’Brien admitting Australia was not 100 per cent. He’s the one to beat, and if he does make it three on the spin for O’Brien, Paddy Power is going to be looking at a monster payout.
KINGSTON HILL 8/1 – 14 per cent
Roger Varian has never won the Epsom Derby but the trainer has the second favourite this year and, along with Roger’s hopes and dreams, 14 per cent of the cash is on Kingston Hill. Everything was looking pretty good for this horse after he won his first three races on the bounce, including the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster in October. Unfortunately it all went a bit tits up when he finished eighth in the Guineas, around four-and-a-half lengths behind Australia.
TRUE STORY 10/1 – 7 per cent
It’s been a decade since Kieran Fallon (above) won the Derby, but if there is one man who knows his way around Epsom, it is probably Mr Controversial himself. Three Derby wins, four Epsom Oaks victories and another three Coronation Cup triumphs shows that if you need a man to do a job at the Surrey track, Fallon isn’t a bad man to go to. That’s exactly what Saeed bin Suroor has done, ditching Silvestre de Sousa, and seven per cent of punters agree. True Story was a beaten odds-on favourite in the Group 2 Dante Stakes in York, but before that race was considered Australia’s greatest rival. Fallon says he’s quicker than his three previous Derby winners and his speed will be his greatest weapon on Saturday afternoon.
GEOFFREY CHAUCER 10/1 – 6 per cent
Another Aidan O’Brien horse threatening to win the Derby is Geoffrey Chaucer. Ryan Moore takes the ride and is bidding for his third Derby win in the last five years after successes on Workforce in 2010 and Ruler of the World last year. Geoffrey Chaucer was third in a Group 3 Derby trail at Leopardstown with Joseph O’Brien on board, but it was a messy race that had to be decided in the steward’s room rather than on the track. Six per cent of Paddy’s punters feel it will be an O’Brien victory on Saturday, but they’re siding with Geoffrey Chaucer and are going against the favourite.
- Placed your Derby punt yet? Follow the money or go it alone with the latest odds here: Desktop | Mobile