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James Rodriguez has the Golden Boot in the bag….or does he?

James Rodriguez leads the race for the Golden Boot but with Colombia out of the World Cup has he done enough to win? We look to the past in an attempt to predict the future

by Rob Dore | July 7, 2014

With just four games left to be played in the 2014 World Cup young Jimmy Rodriguez tops the goalscorer charts with six goals, two clear of Neymar, Thomas Muller and Lionel Messi. the Colombian has been one of the stars of the tournament and deserves to leave with some kind of reward to mark his achievements. Other than the large sums of cash he received from the Colmbian FA, Monaco and his sponsors for taking part.

Despite rumours that he would try to make the final if Brazil get past Germany it seems rather unlikely we’ll be seeing Neymar playing again this summer. I’m not a doctor but breaking a vertebrae sounds kind of serious, what with the risks of paralysis and all.

Muller and Messi are still involved so if someone is going to catch Rodriguez it looks like it’ll be one of this pair. As the pie chart below shows 24 of the 28 World Cup top goalscorers have at least made it to the last four. The odds are in their favour.

topgoalscorer_piechart

It’s certainly not beyond the realms of possibility that either Muller or Messi could score two or three more goals. Regardless of how their teams fare in their respective semi-finals they’ll each get to play two more games. Presuming they’re picked to start of course. But as things stand the odds-makers think the Colombian will be getting a statue of a golden boot in the mail within weeks.

Top Goalscorer Betting

    • James Rodriguez – 8/11
    • Lionel Messi – 11/4
    • Thomas Muller – 5/1
    • Robin van Persie – 16/1

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Rodriguez’ total of six goals would have been good enough to win or tie for the Golden Boot in ten of the previous 19 World Cups, including eight of the last ten. Six is also the most common winning total, occurring six times. Twice as many as any other total. Five and eight goal totals have both been successful three times apiece.

topgoalscorer_totals

To conclude, some of the stats suggest Rodriguez has already done enough to secure the Golden Boot. Other stats indicate the winner is still involved in the tournament. Argentina’s Lionel Messi and Germany’s Thomas Muller are the most likely candidates but maybe Robin van Persie or Arjen Robben (both on three goals) will bang in a hat-trick in the semi-final to tie things up with Rodriguez.

Oleg Salenko is the only player to win the Golden Boot without making it past the group stages. (1994)

Six goals would have been the most popular prediction for the Golden Boot total before the tournament. Rodriguez it is then….unless…..

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