The Premier League is back, which can mean only one thing – the return of ‘The Dream’.
‘The Dream’ is slightly different for everyone, but always revolves around one crucial component, the accumulator. Whether it is a four-fold or a fourteen-fold and whether it could win £100 or £100k, it doesn’t matter. Winning an acca puts you on top of the world, and clicking one on the first day of the season could set you up for nine months of glory.
As folks build their opening Premier League weekend acca, you would be forgiven for throwing in Everton, Hull and Chelsea to beat the three promoted sides. It is logical to conclude that three sides joining the Premier League from the Championship will struggle in the opening game now they have stepped up a level in class. but is there any truth to the myth? The Paddy Power Blog cracked open the history books over a brew and some Quality Street to find out…
To break this tetris-inspired graph down, here are the key conclusions that you can take out of the above:
- One of the three sides is likely to get a victory. In 10 of the last 15 years there has been one victory for a promoted side on the opening weekend of the season. However they have never all won, and the only time two of the three newcomers triumphed was in the 1997/98 season when Girl Power ruled and Titanic was smashing all kinds of movie records
- At least one of them will definitely lose. The graph shows that in the 1996/97 season and the 2004/05 campaign, all three teams escaped without defeat. However it is worth noting in both of these years two of the promoted sides played each other on the opening day and consequently those years are slightly skewed. You can pretty much bank on the fact that at least one of the promoted teams will kick-start with a loss.
- It’s rare that all three will get beat. The key stat which will influence your acca is right here. Just four times in 22 seasons have all three promoted sides started the season with defeat – that’s a strike rate of just 18 per cent. It did happen last year as Cardiff, Hull and Palace all flopped on the opening day – in fact none of them even scored – however that was against the trend, and is unlikely to happen again.
Of the three games involving promoted teams in the opening weekend, the side that the traders think is most likely in for a beating is Burnley. The Clarets are away against title-favourites Chelsea and are, unsurprisingly, big outsiders at 7/1. Chelsea fit the job of acca bankers at 2/5, but if you’re looking for a working-mans’s price back them to win to nil at 11/10. In the 15 opening PL games featuring promoted sides in the last five years, 67 per cent of them have failed to score and Burnley might struggle to breach Chelsea’s defence on Monday night.
The trends suggest one of the promoted sides will pick up a victory and, according to the traders, that is most likely going to be QPR. Rangers are home to Hull City and are 6/4 to win the game against Steve Bruce’s men. Leicester have a slightly trickier home tie against Everton and are 2/1, but if there’s one side that might be worth including in your acca, Harry Redknapp’s play-off winners fit the bill. In the last eight meetings between the two sides, Hull have won just once, courtesy of two goals in the last five minutes, and Bruce’s side picked up just 12 points on the road last term.