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Why Liverpool are guaranteed to win the Champions League at 25/1…maybe

by Rob Dore | October 1, 2014

Brendan Rodgers has called his own team “a bit broken” after a poor start to the season which has already seen them lose to Aston Villa and West Ham. A lot of less discerning individuals have been considerably more honest in calling them a bit shit.

The loss of Luis Suarez to Barcelona, Daniel Sturridge’s injury, struggling to bed in a raft of new players and some odd tactical decisions from Rodgers have all played a part in the Reds losing three of their first six games. Not exactly what Liverpool fans were expecting after coming so close to winning the Premier League last season.

It’s not all doom and gloom though. Every cloud has a silver lining. When that cloud is viewed under very particular circumstances and you squint a little. So narrow those eyes and open your minds.

brendanrodgers
Liverpool are currently on seven points after six games, with three defeats. If they beat West Brom this weekend they will have ten points with three defeats after seven games. Bare with me here.

That would equal their lowest ever points total after seven games in a season where they’re taking part in the Champions League.

2004/05 Liverpool had ten points after seven games with three defeats and won the Champions League.
2005/06 Liverpool had ten points after seven games but only one defeat and were knocked out at the last 16 stage.
2006/07 Liverpool had ten points after seven games with three defeats and made it to the final.

So ten points and three defeats are the key elements to this speculative equation.

If you’re worried about the paucity of Liverpool’s attacking options here are the season goal totals for the Reds European strikers in all competitions during the 2004/05 season:

  • Milan Baros: 13 goals in 45 games
  • Djibril Cisse: 5 goals in 25 games
  • Anthony Le Tallec: 0 goals in 7 games
  • Florent Sinama-Pongolle: 4 goals in 26 games
  • Neil Mellor: 5 goals in 16 games

A grand total of 27 goals, just three more than Daniel Sturridge scored by himself in 33 games last season.

Keeper The Faith

dudek_clfinal2005

Although Liverpool had an in-form Pepe Reina between the sticks when they lost the 2007 final to AC Milan, it was the wholly less reliable Jerzy Dudek who proved to be one of the heroes of Istanbul. Simon Mignolet may not be as mentally unstable as the Polish stopper but he is at least as unreliable.

If you have any reservations about Liverpool’s leaky defence just remember Djimi Traore. Proof that blind-faith and a lot of luck are more important than a solid defence in Europe. Liverpool fans are choc-full of the first and the stars appear to be aligning to take care of the latter.

With these mind-blowing facts now inhabiting your grey matter you’ll be shocked to find out that Liverpool are a massive 25/1 to win the Champions League. Or if you’re basing your betting choices on what you’ve seen from the Merseysiders so far this season you may be shocked to see the price as short as 25/1.

 

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