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Man United to beat Everton 5-4 and Man City to lose 3-1 to Aston Villa! Here are your craziest bets of the week

Stupid Punt is back with a bang as punters pile into...Philippe Senderos?!

by Josh Powell | October 3, 2014

It’s been another tough week for the bean-counters in Power Tower. After five of the 3pm favourites in the Premier League won last week, Paddy was already on the back foot, only for one inspired punter to click a £5 correct score treble on the Champions League and empty the pockets of the boss to the tune of more than £40k. Seriously. Find out how he did it here, it’ll blow your mind.

This weekend the optimistic (and slightly crazy) punters are back with their Stupid Punts in an attempt to enter the Punting Hall of Fame by clicking a ridiculous-looking bet at monster odds. All that’s required is a little bit of brains, a little bit of balls and a massive dollop of luck, but if you never have a dream, how will you ever have a dream come true? And here on the Paddy Power Blog we’re all dreamers.

Here are three of the most outrageous bets we’ve dug out of Paddy’s Premier League book this week and a few stats to back them up.

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Scorecast: Branislav Ivanovic to score first and Chelsea to beat Arsenal 4-0
One punter has stuck £1 on at 250/1

  • In 182 matches between these two sides, there has never been a 4-0 result to either side. You could probably say we’re due one.
  • The last time Arsenal lost an away game 4-0 in the league was in December 2000. That defeat came at Anfield when goals from Steven Gerrard, Michael Owen, Nick Barmby and Robbie Fowler gave Liverpool victory.
  • Ivanovic is one of the Premier League’s most threatening defenders going forward. In 10 attempts on goal this season he’s scored twice giving him a conversion rate of 20 per cent – the same as Eden Hazard.

Our Blog mancrush on Branislav Ivanovic is no secret, so if there’s one punter we’re willing on this week, this is the one. He’s a Fantasy Football legend and an absolute monster of a defender and it would be no surprise to see him pop up with a goal at Stamford Bridge on Sunday. The 4-0 scoreline might be optimistic but after last year’s 6-0 hammering who knows what will happen!

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Scorecast: Philippe Senderos to score first and Aston Villa to beat Man City 3-1
One punter has got 50p riding on it at 700/1

  • Villa have beaten Man City 3-1 six times at home in their history – 1912, 1920, 1925, 1963, 1991 and 1993 – and once away in March 2001. The last time they won 3-1 at Villa Park against Man City Niall Quinn put the visitors ahead, before a second half comeback from the Villians.
  • Philippe Senderos has scored six Premier League goals since arriving at Arsenal in 2004. That’s an average of one league goal every 30 hours and 15 minutes of football.
  • Villa fans haven’t cheered many 3-1 home wins in the league lately. Since January 2008 Villa have won 3-1 just twice at home in the league – against Blackburn in 2011 and against Hull in May this year when Weimann scored a brace.

Even as far as centre-backs go, Philippe Senderos is hardly prolific, but that probably isn’t even the dodgiest part of this bet. Despite Villa’s early season form, seeing them win a home game in the league 3-1 is rare, expecting them to do it against Manchester City is bordering on crazy.

Scorecast: Leighton Baines to score first but Man Utd to beat Everton 5-4
One punter has £2 on at 3000/1

  • In 190 meetings between these two sides, it has never ended 5-4, although Man United have scored exactly five goals past the Toffees on three occasions. A 5-0 win in 1960 and a pair of 5-1 victories in 1963 and 1999.
  • Baines has 22 goals for Everton in the league since 2007. His penalty at Goodison Park last April was the first time he’d scored past Man United for the Toffees and it ended up costing David Moyes his job!
  • In Premier League history, Man Utd have scored exactly five goals past the opposition on 30 occasions. 63 per cent of these games have been at Old Trafford.

The way both Man Utd and Everton are defending lately this game could end up any score, so we wouldn’t be rushing to discount 5-4 too quickly. Neither would we be in any hurry to disregard Baines opening the scoring – he’s on penalties and free-kicks as well and is always worth another look at the prices. In fact, the more we think about it, this Stupid Punt could look inspired come Sunday afternoon.

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