The Manchester derby has arrived, and while Sky Sports aggressively bombard you with every last bit of slow-motion hyperbole they have in the locker, here at the Paddy Power Blog we’re crunching the numbers so you don’t have too. We’ve meticulously gone through the last 20 derby games at Man City (going all the way back to 1991 when Michael Jackson was number one and the Nintendo Gameboy was the talk of the town) and now we can bring you the results to help your punting this weekend.
The bare essentials
First up let’s get stuck into the basics. In the last 20 derby games at City, the home side have won seven, Man United have won 10 and there have been three draws.
Going into this game City are unsurprisingly the 17/20 favourites, with United at odds of 3/1, and if you plan on getting splinters by sitting on the fence, the draw is 11/4. In just 50 per cent of games have there been over 2.5 goals (a 4/7 shot) and it’s the same strike rate for both teams to score (a slightly skinnier 8/15 punt).
Unfortunately that means we can’t guarantee a high-scoring Sunday thriller, however the trends suggest that half of the time we get an entertaining, attacking game.
The first 45 are crucial
If you’re ahead of half-time you will certainly win the game. Probably. In 20 derby matches at City the side that has been leading at half-time has gone onto win the game 92 per cent of the time. The only time that didn’t happen was in 1993 when two Niall Quinn goals gave Man City a 2-0 lead at the oranges, before second half goals from Eric Cantona (2) and Roy Keane won the game for United. Similarly the team who scores first goes on to win 85 per cent of the time so the first goal is crucial.
‘What does this mean for my punting’, I hear you wail? Well City/City half-time full-time might tempt you at 9/5, as could Man Utd/Man Utd at 6/1. Meanwhile you should probably swerve City to come from behind and win (7/1) and United to come from behind and win (14/1). A lot like Charlie Nicholas, the likelihood of a good comeback is slim.
Don’t be late for kick-off
Kick-off is 1.30pm on Sunday (live on Sky Sports 1 if you’ve been living under a rock for the last week) and you better make sure you’re not caught out at a garden centre or round at your Nan’s, because the trends suggest we’ll be due an early goal. In the last 20 derby games at City, 70 per cent of the opening goals have been in the first half and a quarter of them have been in the opening 10 minutes.
It’s 10/11 for the opening goal to come before the 23rd minute, and a tempting 3/1 for there to be a goal in the first 10 minutes this time around.
- Are you red or blue come Sunday? Put your money where your mouth is with the latest odds here: Desktop | Mobile
Strike it lucky
Once again, at the risk of channeling our inner-Paul Merson, strikers score goals. In the last 20 derby games at City, 72 per cent of the opening goals have been scored by strikers which means it might be worth thinking well and truly in the box this time around. Vincent Kompany is the only defender to open the scoring in those 20 games, so it’s probably best to avoid the bigger odds and stick with the tried and trusted goal-getters.
Edin Dzeko is 11/2 to score first and has a staggering record of five goals in 240 Derby minutes – that’s a goal every 48 minutes. Sergio Aguero’s Manchester derby record isn’t too shabby either with five goals in 451 minutes, and after nine goals in nine league games this season it’s no surprise to see him priced up at 7/2. For the visitors, Wayne Rooney is an interesting 8/1 punt if he can shake off his injury.
Wazza has opened the scoring in three of the last eight derby games at City and will be eager to make an impact after missing October through suspension. No player has as many goals in Manchester derbies as the United captain who has 11.
- City v United. LVG v Pellegrini. Aguero v Rooney. The latest odds are just a click away: Desktop | Mobile
A 75 scorecast to get your teeth into
In the last 20 Derby games at City, the most common result is a Manchester United victory by a single goal. In fact five of the last 10 derby games at the Etihad Stadium have been won by United and they have all been by a single goal. The full break-down looks like this, and it might be enough to tempt you into backing Man United to win by one at odds of 5/1:
- Manchester United single goal wins: 40 per cent
- Manchester City single goal wins: 20 per cent
- Manchester City wins by more than one goal: 15 per cent
- Draws: 15 per cent
- Manchester United wins by more than one goal: 10 per cent
Alternatively City to win by exactly one goal is priced up at 13/5. However if you hand-pick a few of the trends above, Wayne Rooney to open the scoring and Manchester United to win 1-0 doesn’t look like the most ridiculous punt of all time, or does it? Despite sounding sort of reasonable, the traders are completely against us and our offering ludicrous odds of 75/1 that that scorecast clicks on Sunday.
- Will you be backing or bucking the trends this weekend? All the latest odds are here: Desktop | Mobile
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