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Manchester United to win the derby 5-1 and Liverpool to lose 4-0 to Newcastle?! Here are your craziest bets of the weekend

A monster Manchester derby punt and a gamble on Alan Pardew's Magpies at home to Liverpool. They couldn't really come in, could they?

by Josh Powell | October 31, 2014

One punter led the way into the Punting Hall of Fame this week by going through Tuesday’s League Cup card and turning a mere £2.50 into more than £2,500. That fella from Cornwall is the reason we dig out the Stupid Punts every week, as punters defy the odds to click spectacular bets at monster odds. All that’s required to make them click is a little bit of brains, a little bit of balls and a massive dollop of luck. If you never have a dream, how will you ever have a dream come true? And here on the Paddy Power Blog we’re all dreamers.

Here are three of the most outrageous bets we’ve dug out of Paddy’s Premier League book this week and a few stats to try to back them up.

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Scorecast: Danny Ings to score first and Burnley to beat Arsenal 2-0
One punter has stuck £1 on at 450/1

  • Burnley have won 34 per cent of their 98 matches with Arsenal since 1896, however they have won 2-0 just twice. Firstly back in 1926, and more recently in a League Cup match in 2008 when a brace from Kevin McDonald decided the game at Turf Moor.
  • The Clarets have played 37 Premier League games since they last won a top flight match without conceding. That was a home victory against Hull City in 2009 when a brace from Graham Alexander did the damage.
  • Ings has managed just 13 shots in six appearances this season, having an attempt every 36 minutes on average, and just two of those 13 shots have been on target.

This punter is banking on Arsenal’s recent league struggles (winning just two of the last eight) continuing at home this weekend as relegation-threatened Burnley visit the Capital. It has been six years since the Clarets beat Arsenal 2-0 to knock them out of the League Cup, but this is a league game, and this punter is relying on the misfiring Danny Ings breaking the deadlock. At best it’s toeing the line between optimistic and ridiculous.

Arsene Wenger

Scorecast: Papiss Cisse to score first and Newcastle to beat Liverpool 4-0
One punter has got £1 riding on this at 500/1

  • Cisse has played just 241 minutes this season but knocked in four Premier League goals – an average of a goal every 60 minutes. He has a conversion rate of 31 per cent which is mightily impressive – but his fitness is still touch and go.
  • Newcastle have beaten Liverpool 4-0 at St James’ Park just once before – on September 2 1953. Scot Bobby Mitchell scored a brace for the Magpies.
  • The Geordie faithful have seen their side win eight Premier League games 4-0 at St James’ Park since 1993. The teams that took the beatings – Wimbledon, Sheff Utd, Coventry (three times!), Southampton, West Ham, and most recently Spurs in 2003.

Alan Pardew will be sweating on the fitness of Papiss Cisse ahead of Saturday’s early kick-off, as will this punter who is banking on the Newcastle striker to break the deadlock as the home side go on to thump Liverpool. It has been more than a decade since Newcastle won a Premier League home game 4-0, could this be the weekend that changes? We’re not so sure…

Scorecast: Robin van Persie to score first and Man Utd to beat Man City 5-1
One punter has £1 on at 1250/1

  • There have been 167 Manchester derbies in history, and just twice have Man Utd won 5-1. Firstly back in an FA Cup tie when Man Utd beat the-then Ardwick 5-1 away from home, and then on New Years Eve in 1960 when a brace from Bobby Charlton and a hat-trick from Alex Dawson gave the red half of Manchester a thumping 5-1 victory.
  • RVP has two goals in his last three games at the Etihad Stadium, including that stoppage time winner in December 2012. This season he has three Premier League goals from 20 shots – a conversion rate of 15 per cent which is far higher than his conversion rate of five per cent last season
  • Man Utd have won just one away game 5-1 in the Premier League. That was in February 2008 when Utd went to Newcastle and thumped the Magpies. Wayne Rooney and a certain Cristiano Ronaldo both bagged braces while Louis Saha found the onion bag in stoppage time to finish off the rout.

Man City have won just six of their 15 games this season and have lost to West Ham and Newcastle in the last week. Surely it couldn’t happen. Could it?

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