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Matt Chapman: 9 ways to win on the Breeders’ Cup this Saturday….Yeeehaaaa!!

Matt Chapman is at Santa Anita, California for the Breeders' Cup. In between posing with celebrities and topping up his tan he takes time to run through the card for Saturday's races. Giving his unique take on how to tackle the U.S. formlines...

by Matt Chapman | October 31, 2014

It’s here. Breeders’ Cup Saturday 2014. Arguably the greatest racing show on earth at one of the greatest and most beautiful tracks on earth. It’s fantastic, it’s about finding a winner and taking cash off Paddy. You hear me Paddy?

So let’s go race by race and see what damage we can do.

JUVENILE FILLIES – 7.05pm

Let’s not get too clever here. ANGELA RENEE was a revelation in the Grade 1 Chandelier last time when stepped up to an extended mile on a fast surface, having got stuck in the slop on her previous start. She stayed on strongly for the success, and looks to be improving just at the right time for legend Todd Pletcher and Johnny Velzaquez.

FILLY AND MARE TURF – 7.43pm

Reigning champion Dank has every chance of a repeat success for Stoute and Moore, but she was on top of her game 12 months ago while this time comes in on the back of two defeats, an injury and a 136-day absence. At the prices you have to take her on. I like SECRET GESTURE for Ralph Beckett. She has had very few chances on fast ground, but when she has got it she’s done well. Add in a good draw and strong stamina and she might just surprise a few with top Irish champion Pat Smullen on board.

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT – 8.21pm

A real tough call. When in doubt go with solid race form, and JUDY THE BEAUTY gave the mighty Groupie Doll a race in this contest 12 months ago. Her form this season has been perfectly solid and she should give us a good run for our money.

TURF SPRINT – 9.05pm

Certainly Frankie will be hoping to go to Hollywood here like I did the other day via No Nay Never, and he won the Woodford off a seven month break to remain perfect on turf. However, he has no downhill experience and is short odds from stall 14. Silentio is interesting dropping down in trip, but I like RENEESGOTZIP, who has been placed in this for the last two seasons and now has a great chance to get the big win on the board. She looked sharp in her prep run.

JUVENILE – 9.43pm

Usually I would turn straight away from any European raider, and the The Great War is far from a star and steps up massively in trip on a strange surface. Have to take him on.

I have taken a real shine to CARPE DIEM, another Pletcher juvenile. Absolutely romped home in the Breeders’ Futurity off the stretch and his pedigree shouts out that he will be better over further. An exciting prospect.

TURF – 10.22pm

One of the big races of the night, and Flintshire, Telescope and Chicquita all have huge ability. This is a races the Euros farm, but on this occasion I like an ex-European horse in the shape of MAIN SEQUENCE, who chased home Camelot in the Derby. Now he has been transformed Stateside since being gelded and chucked on Lasix, and he has a potent turn of speed. Don’t worry about the draw as he will be dropped out last. A great each-way bet.

SPRINT – 11.01pm

How about this – a Hong King trained, Irish bred, French ridden winner? Well it could happen, as I am hoping RICH TAPESTRY scores here after a recent success at the track. He’s well drawn and has a huge record off the turf. Michael Chang the trainer was an apprentice jockey in Epsom in the 80s. What a result this could be for him and flamboyant Frenchman Olivier Doleuze. He’s a David Bowie super fan by the way!

MILE – 11.40pm

I so want to oppose TORONADO here, as I don’t think he’s a great price. However, on ratings he’s simply the best turf miler in the race, and from a good draw the Queen Anne and Sussex Stakes runner-up really should take all the beating. Anodin will run well, but he’s no Toronado, and I hope the selection provides the Hannons with their first success outside Europe.

CLASSIC – 11.59pm

The highlight of the night and so many possibilities. This is a monster race. They are going to go very fast here, with Bayern, Shared Belief, Moreno, California Chrome and our own Toast of New York all capable of forcing the gallop. And there are others as well who can get on with things. In the circumstances I want a grinder from just off the pace, and that might just be the monster TONALIST. He’s a fine beast, proven over further in the Belmont and a decent winner over 10f last time of the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Lightly raced and consistent, I hope he can prove the champion of champions.

So good luck and enjoy a truly amazing night ahead. Let’s get the Yeeehaaas going and wish Paddy a terrible night of paying us out. Hear me Paddy?

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