Manchester City and Chelsea are in Champions League action tonight, and both sides are expected to win comfortably. That would explain why their combined odds come to just 8/11 with CSKA Moscow and Maribor due to be on the end of a European thumping if the traders are correct. With a whole host of other Champions League heavyweights, such as Barcelona, Bayern Munich and PSG, all long odds-on, it’s an accumulator punter’s dream scenario. But with several mismatched games throwing up some short prices, we’re looking at two goalscorers who could give you a little more bang for your buck.
We’ve plucked out a Champions League first goalscorer double to bring home the bacon this evening. Paddy Power is one of the few bookmakers to offer each-way on first goalscorer bets, so a €5 each-way punt will cost you €10, but will return €151 if they both bag first. If our two hot-shots score at anytime however we’ll still pick up more than €20 to pay for the Wednesday pizza. Happy days.
Man City v CSKA Moscow, Wednesday 7.45pm
Sergio Aguero to score first 3/1
It is hard to look past the obvious in this game at the Etihad Stadium. Sergio Aguero is in untouchable form with 12 goals in 14 games in all competitions this season. Exactly half of these goals have been the first of the game, and in Europe he has opened the scoring against Roma and CSKA Moscow already this season.
The stat that attracts us to this punt more than most however is Aguero’s conversion rate. From just four shots inside the area in Europe he has scored twice. In the Premier League he has scored nine goals in the area from just 39 shots – a conversion rate of 23 per cent. In comparison Edin Dzeko has one goal from 24 shots inside the box (Champions League and Premier League), giving him a conversion rate of just four per cent.
Aguero is as dangerous as going out for ‘just one’ on a Thursday night, and in his form you’d be crazy to bet against him breaking the deadlock again.
Maribor v Chelsea, Wednesday 7.45pm
Eden Hazard to score first 11/2
Eden Hazard hasn’t been as prolific as some Chelsea fans would have hoped this season, with just five goals from 16 games in all competitions, and three of these have been from the penalty spot. However, there is no questioning his quality and he can have a field day against a very poor Maribor side.
Chelsea won the home game against the Slovenian team 6-0 and Hazard had more shots than anybody else in that game, testing the Maribor keeper three times and beating him twice. While Maribor limited Didier Drogba to just 29 touches and one shot, and Loic Remy to just five touches and two shots before he went off injured, the Chelsea midfield found themselves in far more space. Only Luis had more touches than Hazard in that game, and the Belgian can replicate that tonight and find plenty of joy sat just off Diego Costa.