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Danny Welbeck to score and Arsenal to beat Man United 6-1?! Here are your craziest bets of the week

Christmas is just around the corner and these Paddy Power punters are looking to boost their bank accounts with some ridiculous looking long shots...

by Josh Powell | November 21, 2014

The Stupid Punt section of the Blog is all about highlighting some of those loopy-looking bets at monster odds. All that’s required to make them click is a little bit of brains, a little bit of balls and a massive dollop of luck. If you never have a dream, how will you ever have a dream come true? And here on the Paddy Power Blog we’re all dreamers.

There’s a place in the Punting Hall of Fame at stake if you can pull it off. You are the people who make the crazy look inspired and while you have the bravery to toe the line between ridiculous and optimistic, we can only stand back and applaud.

Here are three of the most outrageous bets we’ve dug out of Paddy’s Premier League book this week and a few stats to try to back them up.

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Scorecast: Jonjo Shelvey to score first and Swansea to beat Man City 3-1
One punter is on at 550/1

  • Swansea have won just seven of their 26 meetings with Man City, and have never won 3-1. They did win 3-0 in a Division Two game in 1964 however, and 4-1 in a Division One game in 1983
  • Just 17 per cent of Jonjo Shelvey’s 12 shots have been on target and 75 per cent of them have been long-range efforts from outside the box
  • City haven’t lost a league game 3-1 since April 2009, Stephen Ireland gave them the lead that day against Fulham, but a second half brace from Clint Dempsey either side of a Dickson Etuhu goal gave the Cottagers the win

Manchester City are already eight points behind league leaders Chelsea so they can’t afford to be dropping anymore points, particularly at home. Swansea’s head-to-head record against the Champions isn’t good and one punter is being optimistic with a bet that includes the misfiring Jonjo Shelvey to open the scoring.

Manuel PellegriniTwitter

Scorecast: Jason Puncheon to score first and Crystal Palace to beat Liverpool 4-1
One punter has got £1 riding on this at 750/1

  • Jason Puncheon has managed just one goal from 19 attempts this season, giving him a conversion rate of just five per cent. His conversion rate last year was nine per cent
  • In 42 games against Liverpool, Palace have never managed to score more than three goals in a 90 minute game. That has happened twice in the famous 3-3 draw at the end of last season, and a 3-3 draw in the FA Cup semi-final in 1990 which Palace went on to win in extra time courtesy of an Alan Pardew goal
  • Liverpool have lost two away games 4-1 in their Premier League history. Blackburn Rovers beat them 4-1 at Ewood Park in 1993, courtesy of goals from Mike Newell, Kevin Moran, Kevin Gallacher and Jason Wilcox, and then Chelsea beat them 4-1 at Stamford Bridge in 1998 with Steve Clarke, Tore Andre Flo and a Mark Hughes brace deciding the tie

Liverpool have lost the last three on the spin in all competitions and won just one of the last six, but it’s going to take a record-breaking scoreline for this Stupid Punt to click. Palace would have to score four goals past Liverpool in 90 minutes which they have never done before, and Jason Puncheon will have to hit the target which is about as likely as Kim Kardashian keeping her clothes on.

Brendan Rodgers

Scorecast: Danny Welbeck to score first and Arsenal to beat Man Utd 6-1
Two punters have £1 on at 1250/1

  • This match has finished 6-1 twice before in 218 meetings, however both times United have won – in 1952 and 2001. In the 2001 game at Old Trafford, Dwight Yorke scored a 22 minute hat-trick before Roy Keane, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Teddy Sheringham added to the Gunners’ misery
  • Arsenal have scored exactly six past Man Utd once before however, in a 6-2 victory at Highbury in 1947. Englishman Ronnie Rooke scored a hat-trick in that game on the way to becoming the First Division top scorer for the season. He bagged 68 goals in 88 games for the Gunners
  • Danny Welbeck scored five goals in his first seven games for Arsenal, but has dropped off the boil since. He is now averaging a goal every 207 minutes in the league or Champions League, whereas last season at United he was averaging a goal every 184 minutes

They couldn’t could they? Wenger has just one win in the last 14 meetings with Man Utd, so expecting them to win 6-1 is a big ask. Danny Welbeck to pop up and break the deadlock against his boyhood club is a headline writers dream however…

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