Tipping a winner isn’t easy. No matter how many numbers you crunch, stats you pull, and trends you analyse, it all comes down to opinions. And here on the Paddy Power Blog we don’t mind holding our hands up and admitting we haven’t got the foggiest from time to time.
This weekend is one of those occasions, as Everton face Tottenham at White Hart Lane.
In the Premier League era there has often been very little to separate the two, and as they go into Sunday’s game we’re struggling to pull the splinters out of our arse as we perch firmly on the fence.
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[Credit to Carol Farrell in PP Design for this nifty infographic]
There is very, very little to split Spurs and the Toffees. In fact in the 12 Premier League games they’ve played since January 2008, half of them have finished all square, and five of them have been decided by a single goal. Throw in their birthdays, the size of their grounds and their finishing position in the leagues, and there are clearly plenty of similarities between the two sides.
In the Premier League era 79 per cent of games between Tottenham and Everton have finished level or been decided by a single goal. If you haven’t got your abacus out what that means is, that on average, if they played five times in a row four of the matches would either end all square or be decided by the slimmest of margins.
And at this level that can often mean that one moment of pure quality, one well-worked set-piece, or one brainfart from an unreliable centreback will decide the contest.
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So while picking a winner is made slightly more difficult by the close contest, at least you’re guaranteed a bit of value in the prices. Spurs have lost three of their last five league games and lost four of their six top flight home games, but the traders have them as 7/5 favourites. In keeping with the trends Tottenham are 3/1 to win by exactly one goal.
Everton’s recent form is considerably stronger, and the Toffees are unbeaten in their last five league outings. The traders have priced them up at 2/1 to take all three points back from the capital and Roberto Martinez’s men are 7/2 to win by exactly one goal.
The draw might pull a few people in at odds of 23/10, and there’s good reason to have a little nibble on both teams sharing the spoils.
- Backing a draw in every game this season would see you 3 per cent in profit with Paddy Power
- Incredibly, backing draws is more profitable than backing the undefeated Chelsea. If you stuck £10 on each time you’d be £41.30 up on the draws, compared to £32.20 in profit with Chelsea. Obviously you’d have had to back the draw more often than backing just Chelsea however
- The most profitable draw has been the 2-2 result, securing a profit of £455 with Paddy Power on £5 stakes – that’s a 76 per cent profit
It’s 11/1 for Spurs and Everton to draw 2-2 which might peak your interest, or 16/5 for the game to end in a score draw if you’re a touch more cautious. Whatever happens, if you’re backing the draw and you want to sit on the fence, go for it. Just don’t even think about buying a half-and-half scarf.
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