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Stupid Punt: Arsenal to edge Stoke in 5-4 thriller and Manchester United to put five past Southampton

by Aidan Elder | December 5, 2014

‘What odds does your accum come to?’
‘Only 17,800/1’
‘Right so. You can buy me a pint of unicorn milk when that one comes in.’

We’d imagine that was similar to the conversation one lucky punter had with his mate last week as he put on an outrageous 12-fold on last Saturday’s football. Not long after Rudy Gestede claimed the 96th minute equaliser that claimed a draw for Blackburn and turned his dreams into a £90,000 reality, we hope he was gleefully wiping away a milky mythical moustache from his upper lip as his disbelieving mate looked on.

Yes it defied logic and yes it required a huge slice of luck, but from time to time, these frankly insane bets do come off and normally at colossal odds. That’s what Stupid Punt is all about – trying to find those dreamers who look rational thought squarely in the eye and say ‘no, you’re not my cup of tea mate. Excuse will I stick my head firmly back into the clouds.’

There’s a place in the Punting Hall of Fame at stake if you can pull it off. And of course, loads and loads of sweet cash. And the opportunity to ram it down your friends throats everytime you’re in danger of losing a debate. ‘Yes I know I once Paul Konchesky could win a Ballon d’Or, but have you ever turned a fiver into 90,000 quid? Hadn’t thought so.’

We salute you and we continue to applaud your bravado. Here are three of the most outrageous bets we’ve dug out of Paddy’s Premier League book this week and a few stats to try to back them up.


Correct Score: Arsenal to beat Stoke 5-4
One punter is on at 500/1

  • This scoreline has not occurred in 86 meetings between the two teams over the course of 110 years.
  • The most goals scored in a match between the teams is seven. That was a League Cup fixture back in 1996 when Ian Wright x 2, David Platt, Dennis Bergkamp and Paul Merson all scored for the Gunners.
  • Arsenal have scored five goals away to Stoke on one occasion, but it was at the Victoria Ground back in 1950. Stoke have scored exactly four goals at home to Arsenal just once, back in 1964.

It’s become one of the league’s biggest non-derby rivalries based entirely on a mutual dislike of each other and infamous contrast in styles. While these two teams do occasionally serve up some high scoring encounters, looking for nine goals to come along at once is a bit on the optimistic side. You have to go back six games for the previous nine goals in this games.

Wenger arms out

Correct Score: QPR to beat Burnley 7-1
One punter has got £2 riding on this at 500/1

  • These two teams have only met 37 times. QPR haven’t ever beaten the Clarets 7-1, but they did give them a 7-0 spanking back in 1979.
  • QPR haven’t beaten Burnley in their last nine attempts, losing five times and drawing four.
  • Burnley have been beaten 7-1 six times in the course of their history. They suffered that scoreline at the hands of Blackburn, Newcastle, Arsenal, Sunderland, Huddersfield and West Brom.

Burnley have undergone something of a revival in the last couple of weeks. They’re unbeaten in four league games and depending on results elsewhere, a win could move them out of the relegation zone and as far up the table as 14th. All of QPR’s 11 points have come at home this season, but asking them to stick seven past the visitors is rather optimistic.

Harry Redknapp at QPR

Scorecast:  Ayoze Perez to score first and Newcastle to beat Chelsea 3-0
One punter has a quid on it at 650/1

  • Newcastle have beaten Chelsea 3-0 on three occasions. Sadly for the Magpies, those three wins came in a nine year spell that began in 1910 and finished up in 1919.
  • After going nine games without scoring, Ayoze Perez scored three goals in the space of three games at the end of October and start of November. In fairness to him, his drought wasn’t helped by short substitute appearances, but he has failed to score in his last three games despite starting all of them.
  • Chelsea are unbeaten in 21 games in all competitions this season. They have conceded three goals once however, against Everton back in August. They have conceded three goals in just seven of Jose Mourinho’s 263 games in charge of the club.

Despite being thwarted at Sunderland last weekend, Chelsea are looking unstoppable at the moment. Newcastle had a good run of form lately too, but it looks like it has come to an end. The Black Cats kept the Blues out last weekend, but asking for more of the same along with a three goal victory on their next visit to the north-east is a lot to ask.


Scorecast:  Robin van Persie to score first and Manchester United to beat Southampton 5-0
One punter has the princely sun of 50p on at 1000/1

  • RVP has scored five goals from six career appearances against the Saints, bagging a hat-trick at St. Mary’s back in 2012.
  • Manchester United have beaten Southampton 5-0 on one occasion, That win came at Old Trafford 14 years ago thanks to a Teddy Sheringham hat-trick
  • The Saints have conceded five at home as recently as 2013. That was a 5-1 thumping at the hands of Chelsea in the third round of the FA Cup.

It doesn’t feel like a 1,000/1 shot on the face of it, but given the Saints’ fine form this season and Manchester United’s questionable ability to defend, it certainly seems unlikely. While United have the firepower to score heavily, they also have the capacity to concede so altogether this looks about as likely as Joey Essex captaining a team to win University Challenge.

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