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STUPID PUNT: The 2,250/1 scorecast that needs Liverpool to thump United and a 4,000/1 shot that would make Alan Pardew love himself even more

A walk through some of the most optimistic bets of this Premier League weekend.

by Aidan Elder | December 12, 2014

Tis the season for miracles. Granted most of those miracles involve somehow not getting fired after what you did at the office Christmas party, but it also applies to the world of football where we life in constant hope of landing that huge winning bet that lands us a whopper payout. If ever you get disheartened and think the impossible will never happen, just remember this one thing – Peter Crouch bagged Abbey Clancy. Never give up hope.

There’s a place in the Punting Hall of Fame at stake if you can pull it off. And of course, loads and loads of sweet cash. And the opportunity to ram it down your friends throats every time you’re in danger of losing a debate. ‘Yes I know I once Paul Konchesky could win a Ballon d’Or, but have you ever turned a fiver into 90,000 quid? Hadn’t thought so.’

We salute you and we continue to applaud your bravado. Here are three of the most outrageous bets we’ve dug out of Paddy’s Premier League book this week and a few stats to try to back them up.

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Scorecast: Adam Lallana to score first and Liverpool to win 5-1
One punter is on at 2250/1

  • There has only been one 5-1 scoreline in the entire 190 editions of this fixture. It came in 1953 and Manchester United were on the right side of it at Old Trafford.
  • Liverpool have never beaten United by four goals at Old Trafford. In fact, their biggest win on United’s patch has been by a three goal margin. They’ve managed it five times. The first time was in 1936 and the most recent happened only last season.
  • Only once have Liverpool scored five goals at Old Trafford against United. That came in the aforementioned 1936 fixture when they won 5-2.

Despite going along about as smoothly as a QPR ‘Sunday dinner’, Liverpool may win on Sunday. Adam Lallana may even get on the scoresheet. Both of those eventualities are possible, if somewhat unlikely. However, one punter has taken optimism to the max by sticking the two unlikely events together and then dialing up the specifics to 11. Lallana to score first and then Liverpool to win precisely 5-1? Well, we can only presume that this person fell into a coma seconds after Liverpool won 3-0 at Old Trafford in March and only woken up on Thursday morning.

Brendan Rodgers

Half Time/Full Time Correct Score: Leicester to be winning 2-0 at HT, Manchester City to win 4-2 at FT
Two customers have a grand total £1.10 riding on this at 500/1

  • Manchester City have beaten Leicester 4-2 three times (they all came in the last 26 years), but none of those wins where at the Walkers Stadium/Filbert Street and none of them came after being 2-0 down at half-time..
  • You’ve to go back 31 games to the closing weeks of the 13/14 Championship season since Leicester last lead a match of any description 2-0 at half-time.
  • City haven’t been 2-0 down at half-time to anyone in the league since their defeat at Anfield in April, but they were 2-0 at half-time to Arsenal in the Community Shield, going on to lose 3-0.

With these two teams at opposite ends of both the actual table and the form table, it’s a game we all presume City will romp to victory in. A comfortable win is ultimately what our brave punters are predicting, but they expect it to come via a much tougher means than most expect. The stats say it’s not entirely impossible, but with City finding some form, you’ve got to think it’s got the same chance of coming to pass as a Kardashian saying ‘no, no – that’s too much publicity’.

Wenger arms out

Scorecast: Daryl Janmaat to score first and Newcastle to beat Arsenal-0
One punter has a quid on it at 4,000/1

  • Newcastle have beaten Arsenal 6-0 and 7-0 over the years, but they’ve never won by a 4-0 scoreline against the Gunners – home or away.
  • The Magpies’ biggest win away to the Gunners has been by three goals. Sadly for them, the last time that happened was in 1923.
  • Arsenal have never been beaten 4-0 at home under Arsene Wenger. That somewhat hides the fact they were thumped 5-0 at home by Chelsea in the League Cup in 1998, their biggest home defeats under Wenger in the league have been by three goals – at the hands of Chelsea twice and Middlesbrough.

Newcastle are on a high after upsetting the rampant league leaders last weekend and getting a win at the Emirates certainly isn’t out of the question against an Arsenal team who give off all the stability of an Amanda Bynes tweet. Winning 4-0 however seems a bit optimistic however particularly when you add the unlikelihood of solid defender, but less than prolific goalscorer, Daryl Janmaat to the equation. Janmaat is 50/1 to be 1st Goalscorer on his own and a 4-0 Newcastle victory is 500/1. Adding the two together is just crazy. Godspeed you beautiful lunatic.

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