It’s the week before Christmas, and while our liver prepares itself for the festive merriment to pick up another gear, our bank balance is looking slightly worse for wear. Luckily there is a full weekend of fixtures to potentially boost the e-wallet before we spend the next seven days gorging on turkey, Quality Street and whatever tipple we can get our hands on.
Paddy is still ploughing on with the acca bonus on win-draw-win and both teams to score accumulators so that’s the market we’re looking in for a punt. Unlike a Sky Sports pundit however, we’re not just picking these games out of the sky. We’ve crunched the numbers in England’s top four leagues to pick out the four most likely games in which both teams will find the net. The numbers are below, and if you can’t be bothered to read the whole thing, the higher the top two percentages and the lower the bottom four, the better.
A £10 punt on the fourfold would return £2368.80, plus a Paddy bonus of 473.76, taking your total winnings up to a cracking £2842.56. That’s the best part of £3k to potentially close out 2014 in style.
Blackburn Rovers v Charlton, Championship, Saturday 3.00pm
- Both teams scored in Blackburn’s home games: 80 per cent
- Both teams scored in Charlton’s away games: 60 per cent
- Blackburn’s clean sheets at home: 20 per cent
- Charlton’s clean sheets away from home: 20 per cent
- Blackburn’s failure to score at home: 10 per cent
- Charlton’s failure to score away from home: 20 per cent
The home side come into this game off the back of two league defeats on the spin. Before this month Blackburn were on a nine-game unbeaten run, and had lost just twice at home in the league (to a last minute goal against Sheffield Wednesday, and a winner in the 78th minute against Derby). Charlton have lost just three times all season but have racked up a staggering amount of draws – 12 in 21 games. 60 per cent of their away games have finished all square and this one could well be another score draw to notch up on the bed post.
Verdict: Draw and both teams to score at 7/2
Nottingham Forest v Leeds, Championship, Saturday 5.15pm
- Both teams scored in Forest’s home games: 70 per cent
- Both teams scored in Leeds’ away games: 80 per cent
- Forest’s clean sheets at home: 30 per cent
- Leeds’ clean sheets away from home: 0 per cent (yeah, that’s a big fat zero)
- Forest’s failure to score at home: 10 per cent
- Leeds’ failure to score away from home: 20 per cent
Leeds have won just two of the last eight league games and their away form is smellier than a festival portaloo. The Whites have lost seven of their away games (winning just once) but have scored consolation goals in five of them. Nottingham Forest started the season in flying form, going unbeaten for 11 games. They look to be through the worst of a sticky spell and crucially have lost just two of their 10 games at the City Ground.
Bradford v Scunthorpe, League One, Saturday 3.00pm
- Both teams scored in Bradford’s home games: 70 per cent
- Both teams scored in Scunthorpe’s away games: 80 per cent
- Bradford’s clean sheets at home: 10 per cent
- Scunthorpe’s clean sheets away from home: 10 per cent
- Bradford’s failure to score at home: 20 per cent
- Scunthorpe’s failure to score away from home: 10 per cent
Both sides are starting to pick up some form but we’re edging with Bradford in what could be a close contest. Both Bradford and Scunthorpe have won three and drawn one of their last four League One games and are racking up some much-needed points as we hurtle towards Christmas. While Scunthorpe are just two points away from the relegation zone, the Bantams are just a single point outside the play-off places and we’re siding with the Yorkshire side to keep their run going.
Accrington Stanley v Wycombe, League Two, Saturday, 3.00pm
- Both teams scored in Accrington’s home games: 70 per cent
- Both teams scored in Wycombe’s away games: 70 per cent
- Accrington’s clean sheets at home: 20 per cent
- Wycombe’s clean sheets away from home: 30 per cent
- Accrington’s failure to score at home: 10 per cent
- Wycombe’s failure to score away from home: 10 per cent
Top of the table Wycombe haven’t been defending like champions this season, but they have an incredible win record in League Two and are 12 points clear of Accrington down in 11th. Stanley have won six of their 10 home games, although of their three losses two have been against sides higher in the league than they are. Wycombe on the other hand have been better on the road than at home, with seven wins, two draws and just the single defeat in 10 games.
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