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STUPID PUNT! A 500/1 correct score shot to sink Manchester United and backing a Stewart Downing hat-trick to fund your late Christmas spree

Let the Paddy Power Blog take a Christmas stroll with you through some of the most optimistic bets of this Premier League weekend...

by Paul Mallon | December 19, 2014

Tis the season for silly jumpers, double rounds at the Christmas party free bar and desperately gathering coins for that-minute trip to Poundland. Just us? Fair enough.

But with all that alcohol in people’s systems you could be forgiving for placing the odd Premier League Stupid Punt. Sadly, there’s a history of this kind of thing, which we giddily record here each week. It’s the highlight of our Friday. That and the sausage sambos. Of course, some Paddy Power customers strike it lucky and make our Punting Hall of Fame. Thin line between glory and idiocy.

So, roll up. Here’s three of the most outrageous bets we’ve dug from Paddy’s Premier League book this week and a few stats to try to back them up.

Louis van Gaal

Aston Villa v Manchester United

Correct Score: Aston Villa 4-0. Two UK customers are on at odds of 500/1 (with one of these a £10 bet)

Louis van Gaal’s side head to Villa Park on a run of six consecutive wins. Aston Villa lost to West Brom in their last Premier League game, but that was their first defeat in seven. So, where are the crumbs of comfort to support the, ahem, logic in these guys’ betting?

  • This fixture throws up goals. There’s been 21 in the last six head-to-heads and, while United beat Villa 4-0 in April 2012, March 2008 and December 2003 (amongst others) you have to go back to the 1963/1964 season for the last time Aston Villa beat Manchester United 4-0.
  • The average house price was around £3,100 and the weekly wage in the UK was £18. We’re not sure there’s anything there to support the correct score bet but if you’re salary is £18 you might want to have a word with the boss.
  • Yes, Villa went on a horrible run in November this year, but in 1963 Joe Mercer’s side had their worst-ever sequence – losing 11 on the trot, and still survived the drop (and thumped United with that 4-0).

West Ham v Leicester

To score a hat-trick: One UK customer has backed Stewart Downing with £1 at odds of 250/1 Let’s get this out of the way: Downing is not a bad player. It’s just he’s not quite Liverpool quality. He’s more of a top four fella. Reborn at the apex of West Ham’s diamond formation under the managerial magnificence of Sam Allardyce, the 30-year-old is darting all over the place, assisting left, right and centre, and even pinging in the odd (deflected) goal. Still, to score a hat-trick, you’re having a bloody laugh, right?

  • In 2011 Downing claimed a hat-trick (of awards) when he was named the players’ player, fans’ player and sponsors’ player of the year at Aston Villa.
  • He got two against Manchester City in 2008 when Middlesbrough quite incredibly thrashed them 8-1, and another brace against Burnley, for Villa, in 2010.
  • Struggling here, but he had three assists when Boro beat Steaua Bucharest 4-2 in 2006.

Tottenham v Burnley

Correct Score: One UK customer has backed Spurs to win 5-2 at odds of 100/1 This is the first of four games in 12 days for both sides. Sean Dyche’s side will be looking to win two games on the bounce for only the second time this season after their 1-0 victory over Southampton while Mauricio Pochettino has an injury-free squad.  

  • This is the 107th time these sides have faced off, and while there’s never been a 5-2 scoreline, Spurs have put five past the Turf Moor side a few times: 5-0 in 1927, 5-1 in 1935, 5-0 in 1968 and 5-0 in 2009 which included four from Robbie Keane – the last time these sides played at White Hart Lane. Omen.
  • If you’re looking for some more winter-based inspiration, the first league meeting between these sides came in December 1908 when Spurs won 4-2. Close.
  • There have been 21 goals in the last four meetings in all competitions between Spurs and Burnley, with at least five in each game while those last four meetings have all been home wins.
  • There have been 55 goals in the last 12 meetings between Spurs and Burnley at White Hart Lane; an average of 4.6 per game.

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