Sky Sports have whipped out every slow-motion shot of ‘players snarling’ that they can find in their library. Each montage is accompanied by dramatic music, more fitting for the final scene in Lord of the Rings. All pundits have been told they can only refer to the game as ‘The Title Decider’ – despite the fact both teams still have 16 games and four months or league football ahead of them – and Martin Tyler’s giddyness has reached peak levels.
Ladies and gentlemen, Chelsea v Manchester City is finally here.
Don’t fear, because the Paddy Power Blog team have cut the hyperbole and the bullshit to bring you the cold hard stats in the run-up to the game, and if you’re a Chelsea fan, the trends are well in your favour.
[Handy hint: Click or tap on the infographic to make it larger]
Home advantage could well be key in this encounter, and history suggests Chelsea’s form at Stamford Bridge is as reliable as a celebrity meltdown on Big Brother. The Blues’ have faced City 17 times at home in Premier League history, winning 11, drawing four and losing just twice. Incidentally both of Manchester City’s Premier League wins away to Chelsea have been 4-2 victories, in January 1993 and February 2010. The reigning champions are 100/1 to make it a hat-trick of 4-2 wins at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League if you’re feeling optimistic/a little mad.
Jose Mourinho’s record at the helm is even stronger as our infographic shows. The Special One has lost at Stamford Bridge just once in the league, posting a staggering win rate of 80 per cent. In this world nothing can be certain except death, taxes, and Mourinho winning at home in the league.
Mourinho has also never lost to Manchester City at home in his career. In his first stint at Chelsea he drew 0-0 with the Citizens before beating them 2-0 and 3-0. At Madrid he beat City 3-2 at home in the Champions League, and then back at Chelsea last season Mourinho’s side won 2-1 thanks to a last minute goal from Fernando Torres. Mourinho has the edge over a lot of sides in English football, and he certainly appears to have an edge against Manchester City.
- Can the Special One extend his run against the Citizens? Click for the latest odds: Desktop | Mobile
Heading into Saturday evening’s game and unsurprisingly Chelsea are the red-hot Evens favourites to take three points and stretch their advantage over City to eight points. Mourinho’s men have won all 10 home games in the league this season, scoring an average of 2.4 goals a game and keeping eight clean sheets along the way. The bookies are running scared of Chelsea at home, as punters would have doubled their money if they’d been backing Chelsea in every game at the Bridge.
- The number-crunchers in Power Tower are picking out Chelsea to win 2-0 at 9/1. That’s the scoreline Chelsea have won by in 60 per cent of their home games this season and four of Chelsea’s last five league wins have finished 2-0.
- The brains in Paddy Power are convinced that’s the value, as the average price on Chelsea to win 2-0 is just 7/1.
On the flip-side City are available to back at 13/5, which is massive when you consider their previous biggest price was 6/4 away to Arsenal, and their average price on City in a league game is 4/6. The stats suggest the away side are up against it, but if you fancy them to buck the trends, you can do so at a healthy price.
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