Don’t let yourself be sucked in by the well-worn cliche that Premier League derby games are unpredictable. Yes, at some point this weekend one of the football pundits on the tele-box will utter the words, ‘the form book will go out of the window’ in regards to Tottenham v Arsenal, and everyone else will passionately nod in agreement while Gary Lineker fiddles his taxes off camera.
But, if the trends are anything to go by, this game is predictable.
Arsene Wenger will at some point fail to zip up his ridiculously long jacket, Tottenham fans will taunt Adebayor who will sit on the bench not giving an ounce of a f*ck, and the game will end in a draw.
[Handy hint: Click or tap on the image to make it bigger]
A hat-tip to the awesome Leo Kellenberger and the PP Design team for their handiwork
As our infographic (conjured up by the wizards in PP Design) shows, 10 of the last 19 meetings between these two sides at White Hart Lane have finished level. That’s a statistic that dates all the way back the guts of 20 years – to a time when Jumanji was the talk of the big screen, and Robson and Jerome were tearing up the charts.
The most common result from those 10 draws is the 1-1 result, which has occurred five times, most recently in 2005 when Ledley King’s opener was cancelled out by Robert Pires. Luckily for neutral fans everywhere, just two of those 19 games were 0-0 draws, and there have been just 11 scoreless games in 174 meetings (a strike rate of just six per cent), so there should at least be enough Saturday lunchtime excitement to keep you from switching over to Bargain Hunt.
For the punting man, the Power Tower traders have priced up the draw at a tempting 12/5 – although with the lack of 0-0 draws in this fixture the price of 16/5 around a score draw may be well up your street. Saying that, we’re willing to throw a few quid at an even more optimistic gamble and invite Desmond to the party.
The Gunners have drawn six games this season, and four of them ended 2-2. Interestingly three of these draws were against, what you may consider ‘rival’ clubs: Everton away, Liverpool away, and Manchester City at home. The number crunchers have had a look at the figures and backing the 2-2 correct score is profitable. Admittedly you’d be a few chips short of a Happy Meal, but if you backed every Premier League game so far this season to finish 2-2 you would be left with a 24 per cent profit. And a free year’s membership to the nearest institute.
With those stats in mind, we’re more than happy to take a dabble on the 2-2 draw at odds of 11/1, hopeful of a four-goal thriller to start the Premier League weekend.