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Manchester City v Newcastle: Bank on more misery for the misfiring Magpies with this 11/2 shot

Newcastle United's strikers haven't had much joy against Manchester City in the Premier League recently, and this 11/2 tip says the trends aren't going to change on Saturday

by Josh Powell | February 19, 2015

John Carver began his ‘official temporary head coach’ reign at Newcastle with a 3-0 away win against Hull City. It was a convincing and comprehensive victory, but one that should be taken with a bucket-load rather than a pinch of salt, when considering Newcastle’s ability on the road.

The Magpies have just three wins on their travels, and have failed to score in 38 per cent of their away games. That’s the kind of double-whammy that would make a Geordie wince even more than the thought of Geoff the youth leader’s funeral in Byker Grove.

A trip to the Etihad Stadium to face Manchester City is hardly the tie to inspire a Newcastle goal-fest, as the recent stats suggest…

[Handy hint: If you’re having to squint, just click or tap the image to make it bigger]


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Although being very easy on the eye, the infographic (with thanks to Eleonore Kellenberger) makes bleak reading for Newcastle fans. They have just one win in 15 away Premier League ties against Man City, and five league defeats on the spin including two 4-0 hammerings at the hands of the Citizens. A closer inspection of those most recent five league games is as welcome as a swift kick to the plums for John Carver’s men.

They’ve racked up 53 shots across those five ties, however they’ve averaged just short of one on target, for every four attempted. City on the other hand can boast of a 45 per cent shot accuracy rate, making sure they consistently work Tim Krul. Newcastle’s single goal in those five contests means their conversion rate is a miserable two per cent, compared to the 18 per cent of Manchester City.

Sergio Aguero scores v Norwich

This campaign Man City are unbeaten in 13 games against bottom half sides, keeping clean sheets in 38 per cent of those games. That number rises ever so slightly to 40 per cent when you consider City’s games against bottom half sides at the Etihad Stadium. It may have been a tough five weeks for Man City who have looked fragile with Yaya Toure away at the Africa Cup of Nations, and Vincent Kompany looking strangely out-of-sorts. But Toure is back in the squad for Saturday – as well as January signing Wilfried Bony, just in case you wanted an extra sprinkling of fire power with your strengthened midfield.

Manuel Pellegrini’s Manchester City are Evens to win to nil on Saturday, but that still may be on the slim side for punters looking to get a few rounds of drink on Saturday night courtesy of Paddy’s pocket. That’s why we’re just a little bit tempted by City to win 2-0 at 11/2, despite the correct score trends suggesting otherwise.

  • There have been 105 home wins in the Premier League this season
  • 21 per cent of these home wins have been 2-0, the only more popular score is 2-1 at 23 per cent
  • However Man City are yet to win 2-0 at the Etihad Stadium in the league this season…

It flies in the wind of this season’s statistics, but City’s last three wins in all competitions against Newcastle have been 2-0 (albeit away from home). They are yet to pick up a 2-0 win at home in this league campaign, but 12 games in, surely they’re due one?

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