The Stupid Punt section of the Blog is all about highlighting some of those loopy-looking bets at monster odds. All that’s required to make them click is a little bit of brains, a little bit of balls and a massive dollop of luck. If you never have a dream, how will you ever have a dream come true? And here on the Paddy Power Blog we’re all dreamers.
There’s a place in the Punting Hall of Fame at stake if you can pull it off. You are the people who make the crazy look inspired and while you have the bravery to toe the line between ridiculous and optimistic, we can only stand back and applaud.
Here are three of the most outrageous bets we’ve dug out of Paddy’s FA Cup book this week and a few stats to try to back them up.
Scorecast: Per Mertesacker to score first and Arsenal to beat Manchester United 3-0
One punter has £2 on at 450/1
- In 220 matches between Arsenal and Manchester United, the Gunners have won 3-0 on seven occasions. Arsenal picked up 3-0 victories in 1950, 1968, 1972, 1973, 1983 and twice in 1998. In the most recent of those wins, goals from Tony Adams, Nicolas Anelka and Freddie Ljungberg decided the tie at Highbury
- Arsenal have only won once away to Manchester United in the last 12 years. That was a Premier League match in September 2006 when Emmanuel Adebayor scored the winner with just five minutes of the game remaining
- Per Mertesacker has had eight shots in the league this season – hitting just one on target. That was in the draw against Tottenham back in September
Arsenal haven’t had much experience winning at Old Trafford in recent years, although one optimistic Gunner is expecting that to change in dramatic fashion with this Monday night FA Cup tie. Mertesacker hasn’t hit the target for almost six months, but that hasn’t put this punter off banking on the BFG to start the rout.
West Brom’s Craig Dawson to score a hat-trick v Aston Villa
One punter has £1 on at 500/1
- Saido Berahino was the last West Brom player to get an FA Cup hat-trick – just two months ago in the Baggies 7-0 thumping of Gateshead. The last West Brom player to score a hat-trick against Premier League opposition was Romelu Lukaku against Manchester United in that thrilling 5-5 draw in Sir Alex Ferguson’s last game in charge
- Craig Dawson has had 23 shots in the Premier League in the last two seasons – hitting just 22 per cent of those shots on target. His conversion rate in that time is a measly 8.6 per cent, meaning that, based on the numbers, he’d need to have about 35 shots against Villa to score three times
- The last time Craig Dawson scored an FA Cup goal was in November 2010 when he was playing for Rochdale. It was a first round proper match, which Rochdale lost 3-2 to FC United of Manchester
It’s tough enough to see Villa v West Brom being an absolute FA Cup thriller, let alone Craig Dawson scoring three times. The last time Dawson scored was in a 2-1 defeat to West Ham at the start of December, and unless he suddenly possesses the spirit of Diego Costa, it’s hard to see the Baggies defender being ruthless enough in front of goal to secure the match ball.
Scorecast: Alberto Moreno to score first and Liverpool to beat Blackburn 8-1:
One punter is on at 3000/1
- Liverpool have never won an FA Cup game 8-1, however the Reds did beat Swansea City 8-0 at Anfield in a Third Round Replay in January 1990. Ian Rush scored a hat-trick, John Barnes got a brace, and Ronnie Whelan, Peter Beardsley and Steve Nicol all added goals
- Alberto Moreno has two goals in 33 games for Liverpool, and in the league this season four of his 12 shots have been on target
- The last time Liverpool won an FA Cup game by a seven goal margin was in March 2006, when they won their Sixth Round Game 7-0 away to Birmingham City. Sami Hypia began the thrashing after less than two minutes, and Djibril Cisse rounded it off in the 89th minute
Liverpool’s current form would suggest they should win this game quite comfortably – although it would be more like the Liverpool of last season to score eight goals in a game. The Reds have been in flying form in 2015, and it wouldn’t take a massive leap of faith to see them dishing out some punishment to Blackburn, but it takes a decent imagination to see Moreno starting an 8-1 hammering.
- Book your seat in the Punting Hall of Fame by clicking a monster punt here: Desktop | Mobile
- Seen something you’d like to share with @paddypower? Email email@example.com