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Liverpool to lose 4-0 to Arsenal, and Newcastle to win 5-0 against Sunderland?! Here are your craziest bets of the week

We take a look at the punters optimistic enough to try their luck with a Stupid Punt at monster odds

by Josh Powell | April 2, 2015

The Stupid Punt section of the Blog is all about highlighting some of those loopy-looking bets at monster odds. All that’s required to make them click is a little bit of brains, a little bit of balls and a massive dollop of luck. If you never have a dream, how will you ever have a dream come true? And here on the Paddy Power Blog we’re all dreamers.

There’s a place in the Punting Hall of Fame at stake if you can pull it off. You are the people who make the crazy look inspired and while you have the bravery to toe the line between ridiculous and optimistic, we can only stand back and applaud.

Here are three of the most outrageous bets we’ve dug out of Paddy’s Premier League book this week and a few stats to try to back them up.

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Scorecast: Mesut Ozil to score first and Arsenal to beat Liverpool 4-0
One punter has £1 on at 200/1

  • In 218 meetings between Arsenal and Liverpool, the Gunners have won 4-0 just once before. That was on April 20 1992 at Highbury and featured goals from David Hillier, Anders Limpar and a brace from Ian Wright.
  • Mesut Ozil has scored three goals from 23 attempts in the league this season, giving the midfielder a conversion rate of 14.3 per cent. In the league this season, there are 65 players who are more prolific than the German.
  • In Premier League history, Arsenal have won 10 games 4-0 at home. Most recently was against Fulham, almost five years ago to the day. Andrei Arshavin, Robin van Persie and Carlos Vela all scored along with an own goal from Chris Baird.

Liverpool have won just two of their last 20 away games to Arsenal, and with Martin Skrtel, Steven Gerrard and Daniel Sturridge missing, it’s clear why Arsenal fans would be fairly confident. There’s confidence and then there’s craziness however, and this punt that Mesut Ozil will kick-start a 4-0 thrashing of Brendan Rodgers’ men is quite close to crossing that line.

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  • Book your seat in the Punting Hall of Fame by clicking a monster punt here: Desktop | Mobile

Scorecast: Gabby Agbonlahor to score first and Aston Villa to beat Man Utd 3-2
One punter has £1 on at 550/1

  • Aston Villa have beaten Manchester United 3-2 at Old Trafford just once before. 85 years ago in a Division One game Villa won 3-2 at the Theatre of Dreams, courtesy of a goal from Joe Beresford and a brace from Pongo Waring.
  • The last side to win 3-2 at Old Trafford was Tottenham Hotspur. An own goal from Jonny Evans, plus strikes from Gareth Bale and Clint Dempsey gave Spurs a 3-2 win in September 2012.
  • Agbonlahor has scored six goals from 41 shots this season, meaning his conversion rate is 14.63 per cent. Incredibly that is just marginally behind Sergio Aguero’s conversion rate of 15.04 per cent.

Chelsea are the only side with a better home record than Manchester United this season, so it’s tough to see Louis van Gaal’s side throwing away points to Aston Villa – a side who have scored just eight goals on the road all season. Expecting them to win at Old Trafford is optimistic in itself. Expecting them to win and score three goals is simply bananas.

Gabby Agbonlahor

Correct Score: Sunderland 0-5 Newcastle
Five punters are on at 500/1

  • In 151 meetings between the two sides, the Tyne-Wear derby has ended 5-0 just once before. That was in 1930, and it ended 5-0 to the Black Cats.
  • The Geordies have only scored five goals away from home in the Premier League once before. That was in a 5-1 victory against Coventry City at Highfield Road in September 1998, in a game which they went 1-0 down in. They have won four Premier League home games 5-0 though, against West Ham, Southampton, Nottingham Forest and Manchester United.
  • Sunderland have never lost a Premier League game 5-0 on home soil. They have lost five games 5-0 away from home in the Premier League though to Manchester City (2011), Chelsea (2008), Ipswich (2001), Everton (1999) and Manchester United (1996).

Some very passionate Newcastle fan fancies John Carver’s side to beat their nearest and least dearest rivals 5-0 and make history this weekend. As well as being the Geordies first 5-0 win against Sunderland, it would put the Black Cats bang in trouble at the bottom of the table and that’s even more incentive for the Magpies. Passionately optimistic? Yes. Crazy? Just a touch.

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