As Ed Miliband arrives in Scotland it is worth checking in on the scale of the catastrophe facing Labour North of Hadrian’s Wall. Cities like Glasgow were once Labour fortresses where the election night count was a formality. Now all the seats are competitive and if punters are to be believed, will mostly return SNP MPs.
My experience of the past is always to fade hysteria, that pollster’s predictions of 50 plus seats going to the SNP may well go the same way as Cleggmania in 2005. People forget that the LibDems went from having 62 seats in 2005 to just 57 seats after the 2010 election – losing seats on the back of Cleggmania.
Will it be any different this time? The SNP are 1/20 to get the most seats in Scotland, that is pretty much nailed on and offers little value as a bet. In Glasgow if you fancy a more attractive 25% return on your money within a month, take the “SNP to win most seats” at 1/4. The hysteria might fade, but on election night it looks pretty certain Glasgow Labour won’t be painting the town red.