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Bayern and Barcelona: Are they really, really, ridiculously good? Or are the German and Spanish leagues just a bit crap?

Both teams are in action tonight in the quarter finals of the Champions League, and both teams are regularly hockeying teams in their respective leagues.

by David Lyons | April 15, 2015

But how does this translate into Champions League games. Well kids, let’s put on our lab coats, safety goggles and crunch some numbers.

“What are we gonna do tonight Brain?”
“Same thing we do every night Pinky… try and find a way to show that there is hope for the underdog”

So we’re going to only use this season and last season as there are more or less the same squads and oppositions, so it should give us a more consistent result and show that Bayern and Barca into the next round isn’t a foregone conclusion… And who doesn’t want to see Porto stick it to Bayern Munich? There’s no English teams left so we need entertainment!

To date, Bayern have played 20 Champions League games – 12 last season and eight so far this season, winning 12 of those games which gives them a win percentage of 60%. Whatever way you look at that, that seems quite poor for a team that aims to win every trophy that crosses their paths.

bayern-munich1

  • Jog on over here and get the latest odds on tonight’s Champions League actions here on Desktop | Mobile

Throw on your wellies, we’re going deeper. Does a huge win in the Bundesliga the previous weekend mean that Bayern will walk all over their Champions League opposition midweek? Yes and No. Ish.

Even if you just look at this season, Bayern embarrassed Werder Bremen 6-0, and then went to Roma and demolished those 7-1. But! They beat Hoffenheim 4-0 then lost 3-2 to Man City, and more recently they hopped Hamburg 8-0 and followed that up with a scoreless draw against Shaktar.

Last season a 7-0 win in the league was followed up by a defeat to Man City, and a 6-1 win was followed up by a 1-1 draw against Arsenal. There is a pattern here that good league form for Bayern doesn’t correlate with Champions League form. In fact, 40% of the time, a win in the league means a draw or a loss in the Champions League for Bayern Munich.

Does this apply solely to Bayern though? I thought you’d never ask!

Barcelona-800

Barcelona are fellow culprits to this trend. Looking at their past results is horrendously boring: win, win, win, win and, wait for it… win. But when you actually look deeper, you notice draws and losses, and many of those come in the Champions League. Interesting.

Barca have played 18 games over the past two seasons and have only won 50% of them. Yes, we’re both thinking of the same Barcelona here. HALF their games have been wins.

Last season it was a 4-0 win against Granada, before a 2-1 loss to Ajax. A win in the league was then followed up by a draw and a loss to eventual finalists Atletico Madrid.

Even this season, a 6-0 win against Granada was followed up by their first defeat of the season to PSG when they lost 3-2.

Gerard-Pique-Barcelona

  • Jog on over here and get the latest odds on tonight’s Champions League actions here on Desktop | Mobile

What’s curious about the statistics here though, is that they show Barcelona have a tendency to draw a Champions League game after a La Liga draw. Do you know what the result of last weekend’s game with Sevilla was? 2-2. Just sayin’.

As is the tradition after research, we need to summarise our findings as short and sweet as a donkey’s gallop:

  • Basically there is only a 60% chance that Bayern will win against Porto
  • A 100% chance that Barcelona will draw with PSG
  • Pep really needs to try out the Premier League for some competitive football

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