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Chelsea to beat Manchester United 4-3 and Arsenal to lose 4-0 against Reading?! Check out your craziest bets of the weekend

We have one very optimistic Reading fan headlining our Stupid Punt section this week, and a Chelsea scorecast against Manchester United that isn't as ridiculous as the odds suggest...

by Josh Powell | April 17, 2015

The Stupid Punt section of the Blog is all about highlighting some of those loopy-looking bets at monster odds. All that’s required to make them click is a little bit of brains, a little bit of balls and a massive dollop of luck. If you never have a dream, how will you ever have a dream come true? And here on the Paddy Power Blog we’re all dreamers.

There’s a place in the Punting Hall of Fame at stake if you can pull it off. You are the people who make the crazy look inspired and while you have the bravery to toe the line between ridiculous and optimistic, we can only stand back and applaud.

Here are three of the most outrageous bets we’ve dug out of Paddy’s Premier League book this week and a few stats to try to back them up.

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Scorecast: Diafra Sakho to score first and West Ham to beat Man City 2-0
One punter has 50p on at 450/1

  • The last time West Ham beat Man City 2-0 was in May 1987. Liam Brady and Tony Cottee scored for the Hammers at Upton Park, but they’ve faced Man City 36 times since without winning 2-0.
  • City haven’t lost three league games on the spin since October 2008. On that occasion they lost 2-0 to Middlesbrough and Bolton, before Tottenham beat them 2-1. West Ham could be the third team to beat them on the spin this time after Crystal Palace and Man United picked up victories.
  • Diafra Sakho has scored 10 goals from 66 shots this season, giving him a conversion rate of 15.2 per cent. That’s a better conversion rate than Alexis Sanchez and leaves him marginally behind Sergio Aguero.

Manchester City are in a serious spot of bother and Manuel Pellegrini’s P45 is printed off and sitting in HR. He might be gone before the end of the season if results continue to go against him, and one optimistic punter fancies West Ham to pile on the misery. Sakho’s form is reasonably sharp, although City’s record at home to West Ham looks strong.

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  • Book your seat in the Punting Hall of Fame by clicking a monster punt here: Desktop | Mobile

Scorecast: Juan Mata to score first but Chelsea to beat Man Utd 4-3
One punter has 50p on at 600/1

  • In 172 meetings between Chelsea and Man Utd, the result has never finished 4-3. Juan Mata however did open the scoring in a 3-3 draw at Stamford Bridge in February 2012 however, so there is a tiny glimmer of hope going into this punt.
  • Juan Mata is one of the deadliest players in the Premier League, with an incredible conversion rate of 32 per cent. He has three goals in his last three games for Louis van Gaal’s side.
  • Chelsea have won 4-3 at Stamford Bridge just twice in Premier League history. In 2009 they went 4-0 up against Bolton Wanderers, before three goals in eight minutes almost earned a draw for the Trotters. Before that in 1994 they beat Tottenham 4-3 at the Bridge courtesy of an 89th minute winner from the penalty spot.

On the surface, it isn’t an unrealistic punt. Jose Mourinho’s record against Man United is very strong. Juan Mata is in a rich vein of form. Louis van Gaal’s side, as good as they are going forward, are hardly watertight at the back. But combining all of those elements into a 600/1 scorecast might just be crossing the line into madness…

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Scorecast: Pavel Pogrebnyak to score first and Reading to beat Arsenal 4-0
One punter has £1 at 2250/1

  • Reading and Arsenal have met 12 times in their history – and the Gunners have won every single time. Arsenal have never failed to score against Reading and average 3.3 goals a game against the Royals.
  • The last time Reading picked up a 4-0 win was in an FA Cup game back in January 2013. It was a fourth round game at home against Sheffield United, with Irishman Noel Hunt grabbing two.
  • Pogrebnyak has scored just six goals in 25 Championship appearances this season, averaging a goal every 255 minutes of play.

There are some things in life that, no matter how hard you try, you simply can’t explain. This punt is one of them.

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