The Stupid Punt section of the Blog is all about highlighting some of those loopy-looking bets at monster odds. All that’s required to make them click is a little bit of brains, a little bit of balls and a massive dollop of luck. If you never have a dream, how will you ever have a dream come true? And here on the Paddy Power Blog we’re all dreamers.
There’s a place in the Punting Hall of Fame at stake if you can pull it off. You are the people who make the crazy look inspired and while you have the bravery to toe the line between ridiculous and optimistic, we can only stand back and applaud.
Here are three of the most outrageous bets we’ve dug out of Paddy’s Premier League book this week and a few stats to try to back them up.
Scorecast: Olivier Giroud to score first and Arsenal to beat Chelsea 4-2
One punter has £5 on at 300/1
- Arsenal have never beaten Chelsea 4-2 in 184 meetings between the two sides since 1907. There have been two games that finished 4-2 (1938 and 1964) but both of them went the way of the Pensioners.
- The Gunners have won five Premier League games 4-2 at home since 1992. Southampton (1995), Sheffield Wednesday (1995), Liverpool (2004), Wigan (2006) and Bolton (2010) have all suffered a 4-2 beating by Arsenal at either Highbury or the Emirates.
- Olivier Giroud has 14 goals this season, and a tidy conversion rate of 24.14 per cent. If yo had put £5 on the French striker to score first every week this season, you’d currently have a profit of £27.50 in your back pocket.
Will it be lucky number 13 for Arsene Wenger, as he attempts to beat Jose Mourinho for the first time? Seven defeats and five draws against the Special One is hardly an inspiring CV, but that hasn’t put this punter off banking on a convincing win for the Gunners, with the in-form Giroud breaking the deadlock.
- The Emirates belongs to Mourinho – and we’re Hazarding a guess that this 40/1 shot might pocket us a few quid
Scorecast: Christian Benteke to score first and Aston Villa to beat Man City 3-1
One punter is on at 550/1
- Aston Villa have managed to beat Manchester City 3-1 away once before. In March 2001, in a Premier League game at Maine Road, Shaun Goater gave City the lead after 12 minutes. But goals from Paul Merson, Dion Dublin and Lee Hendry turned the match on its head and gave Villa all three points.
- Since Tim Sherwood’s arrival at Villa Park, Christian Benteke has scored nine goals in 10 games in all competitions, and currently has six in his last four matches.
- It has been more than 20 months since Aston Villa won an away game 3-1. That was on the opening day of the 2013/14 season when they beat Arsenal at the Emirates courtesy of a brace from Benteke and a goal from Antonio Luna. This season Villa have scored just 10 goals in 17 away games, giving them an average of 0.59 goals per game on the road.
Aston Villa are hardly prolific on the road, but fans are giddy with Tim Sherwood’s arrival steering them to just two defeats in the last six and an FA Cup final date with Arsenal. That giddiness may just have crossed a line though, and expecting Villa to thump Manchester City at the Etihad, even considering the Citizens recent form, is just a tad optimistic.
Scorecast: Leighton Baines to score first and Everton to draw 4-4 with Manchester Utd
One punter has £1 at 5000/1
- Only once in 192 meetings has this game finished 4-4. That was recently enough at Old Trafford in April 2012. Nikica Jelavic gave Everton the lead before Wayne Rooney equalised before half-time. United surged into a 3-1 lead courtesy of goals from Nani and Danny Welbeck, before Marouane Fellaini pulled a goal back. Two minutes later Wayne Rooney restored United’s two goal cushion, before goals from Jelavic and Pienaar in the 83rd and 85th minutes made it 4-4.
- That is the only Premier League game Man Utd have ever drawn 4-4, but Everton also split an eight-goal thriller with Leeds at Goodison Park in 1999. Kevin Campbell scored a couple for the Toffees, but it was defender David Wier who popped up with the equaliser in the final minutes.
- Baines has scored just twice this season from 22 attempts, giving him a conversion rate of just 9.09 per cent.
Everton seemed to have knocked Baines off penalty duty which might put a dampener on this punt, but it’s an ambitious one to start with. Thrilling 4-4 draws don’t come around too often, and after getting one in this match in 2012 we’re probably not due another for a while. Saying that, both teams have been scoring plenty, as well as shipping a few this season, so you just never know.
- Manchester Utd are heading for a top four finish – and there is Juan good reason why
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- Manchester United are heading for a top four finish, and there is Juan good reason why
- Arsenal v Chelsea: The Emirates belongs to Jose Mourinho and we’re Hazarding a guess that this 40/1 shot could pocket us a few quid
- Neville Southall: I don’t think Roberto Martinez can afford another season like this