Who will get the second-highest number of first preference votes in the Labour leadership election?
- Yvette Cooper 11/8
- Andy Burnham 7/4
- Liz Kendall 7/2
- Jeremy Corbyn 6/1
This is a fascinating Paddy Power market for political punters because of the preference voting system that the Labour Party employs for elections. It means you can vote for someone even if you suspect that it is unlikely they will win safely knowing that your second preference will count in the final count. The system counts preference votes until someone gets 51% of the votes – if no candidate has 51% the candidate with the least votes is eliminated and their voter’s second preferences are re-allocated.
This means there is no “wasted vote” fear in voting for a protest candidate. The pundits are sure Burnham is the favourite, an Ipsos Mori poll agrees, with Yvette second, Kendall third and Corbyn (pictured) fourth. The odds follow that ranking.
On social media and at the hustings Corbyn support is much stronger – arguably because as always there is more vocal support for extremists and Corbyn is pretty much out there. Labour members who are just tired of careerist ex-SpAds and centrists may give their first preference to Corbyn as a form of protest against the uninspiring mainstream choices on offer. Add this to his left-wing socialist base and I suspect his long odds are generous. The leadership race will be decided in September.
As a value bet have a flutter on Corbyn to surprise.