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Paddy’s Punt: Jack Hobbs looks an Irish Derby good thing but there’s a 9/1 shot I fancy before it

by Paddy Power | June 26, 2015

There’s always the danger when comparing chalk and cheese that you’ll end up with warm brie smeared on a blackboard. Nothing either appetising or insightful. To borrow a phrase from my footballing friends there is a ‘corridor of uncertainty’ between the objective and the potential result.

That’s what we face trying to get the winner of the Irish Derby – based largely on form lines from Epsom’s equivalent.

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The first one (Epsom) is run on the equivalent of a crazy-golf course to suit a Happy Gilmore creation. The other (Curragh) on a lush rolling plain in Co Kildare more comparable to St. Andrews.

But a winner’s a winner right?

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John Gosden and William Buick look to have the key to this race with Epsom Derby runner-up Jack Hobbs but Aidan O’Brien and the ‘best jockey in the world’ combine with French Derby second (behind the impressive New Bay) Highland Reel.

More Epsom form is on show with William Haggas’ Storm the Stars and a fairer, galloping track like the Curragh could see him improve.

Joseph O’Brien takes the ride for his dad on Epsom fourth Giovanni Canneletto.

Look I know that Ryan Moore has deserted him for Highland Reel – but some of my former girlfriends did the same thing and that doesn’t mean they were right.

Qualify was a shock winner of the Epsom Oaks at 50/1 and the only filly in the race benefits from the ‘win-and-you’re-in’ rule. I not sure whether she just gets unlucky-in-running or is just a head case.

The O’Brien’s bred her and she’s obviously talented because she went to Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup last year and has been persisted with at the top level.

Head, heart and history

Radanpour looks a big price for Dermot Weld and I wouldn’t put anyone off him each-way – especially if there’s rain.

Head, heart and history suggest Jack Hobbs is the good thing. Everything has to raise their game to his level – and more – to beat him. That’s why he’s odds on.

Incidentally, we sponsor the Paddy Power Handicap at 5.20pm  and I like Hi Emperor (at 9/1 on Friday night) in a race we’re paying out on the first four home each-way.

Selection: Jack Hobbs   Alternative: Radanpour

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